***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 4.5 1.0 60.9 62.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 5.2 4.6 4.2 1.0 63.7 62.9 3.4 3.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 7.5 7.1 4.3 1.1 61.7 63.4 5.8 6.7 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 1.9 0.9 2.3 0.8 59.1 61.3 -1.2 0.7 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 5.0 4.6 2.5 0.9 60.2 61.6 1.1 3.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 3.6 3.3 0.7 0.9 61.3 61.8 0.7 2.4 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 5.3 4.6 4.2 1.0 63.6 62.8 3.5 4.3 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 -0.7 -2.0 1.1 1.1 62.1 63.3 -4.2 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 5.7 5.1 3.1 1.0 61.6 62.8 2.9 4.4 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 5.8 5.0 1.8 1.1 61.2 63.0 2.8 4.5 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 5.6 4.8 2.1 0.8 58.1 61.1 2.1 4.1 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 4.0 2.9 1.8 0.9 60.7 62.1 0.8 2.6 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 4.8 4.4 1.3 0.8 60.3 60.9 1.7 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 5.6 4.8 3.0 1.1 65.5 63.9 3.5 4.4 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 5.2 4.8 2.8 0.8 57.6 61.7 2.7 4.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 5.8 5.5 1.8 0.8 60.0 60.9 2.9 4.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 5.3 4.7 4.1 0.9 63.2 61.9 3.5 4.5 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 2.9 2.7 1.3 1.2 62.9 63.6 0.1 1.7 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 5.1 4.7 4.2 1.0 64.6 63.0 3.5 4.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 0.7 0.5 -0.4 1.3 65.3 65.0 -2.3 -1.2 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 5.4 5.0 3.9 1.1 61.8 62.9 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 4.8 4.1 4.1 0.9 63.9 61.7 3.1 3.6 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 4.9 4.3 4.0 1.1 65.4 63.4 2.3 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 4.9 4.9 2.8 1.1 62.9 63.6 2.8 3.7 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 5.8 4.9 3.0 0.9 60.6 62.0 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 4.6 4.2 1.3 0.7 60.0 60.1 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 6.6 5.8 3.8 1.0 60.5 62.0 2.9 5.4 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 3.7 3.3 2.6 0.8 58.9 61.6 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 2.7 2.9 0.7 1.3 64.2 64.4 0.0 0.9 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 5.9 5.4 4.3 1.0 63.5 63.0 3.8 4.8 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------