***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 2.5 -0.2 48.2 52.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 0.2 1.6 2.2 -0.3 49.0 51.2 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 1.9 3.3 2.1 -0.3 46.4 51.1 2.5 3.5 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -5.0 -3.2 -0.2 -0.7 42.2 47.8 -4.3 -2.3 -0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 -0.9 0.5 0.0 -0.6 44.7 49.0 0.0 1.0 2.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 0.7 -0.2 -1.7 -0.3 44.9 50.4 -0.7 0.0 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 0.6 1.9 2.3 -0.2 49.7 51.5 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -7.6 -6.2 -1.1 -0.3 46.9 51.8 -7.5 -5.9 -3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 0.2 2.0 0.8 -0.4 48.9 51.0 0.7 2.0 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 0.4 1.3 -0.5 -0.3 48.4 51.4 0.9 1.6 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 0.3 1.4 -0.4 -0.7 42.1 47.7 0.4 1.7 3.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 -0.8 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 44.5 49.5 -0.6 0.6 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.5 -1.1 -0.5 45.3 48.6 0.3 1.7 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 1.0 1.9 0.8 -0.5 42.7 51.3 1.8 2.4 3.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 0.6 2.4 0.3 -0.6 41.8 48.1 1.1 2.5 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 0.8 1.2 -0.8 -0.7 41.6 47.5 0.8 2.6 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 0.6 1.9 2.1 -0.3 49.4 51.4 0.5 1.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 -1.1 0.2 -1.0 -0.2 50.3 52.8 -0.6 0.2 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 0.1 1.6 2.1 -0.3 47.2 50.9 0.4 1.9 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -3.9 -2.4 -2.3 0.2 52.3 55.4 -3.9 -2.5 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 0.2 1.9 1.7 -0.3 47.0 51.4 1.3 2.0 3.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 0.1 1.5 2.1 -0.3 46.1 51.5 0.2 1.8 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 0.0 1.1 1.9 -0.4 44.2 50.7 0.7 1.4 3.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 0.5 1.5 0.5 -0.4 46.0 51.4 1.0 1.6 3.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 -0.4 1.4 0.8 -0.5 43.6 50.0 1.1 1.7 2.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 2.0 1.4 -0.6 -0.2 48.0 50.7 0.4 1.6 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 0.4 1.5 1.8 -0.3 46.7 51.7 0.9 1.8 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 -1.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 41.3 47.9 -0.7 0.9 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -3.0 -1.2 -1.6 -0.1 49.7 53.3 -3.4 -1.1 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 0.7 1.9 2.3 -0.3 48.5 51.1 0.7 2.3 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------