***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 43.2 97.2 56.8 49.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 33.5 32.6 41.1 100.1 56.1 51.9 20.7 31.1 37.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 42.6 42.7 44.8 99.7 57.0 51.9 20.7 36.8 53.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 43.0 39.6 47.9 90.3 50.5 46.3 28.1 39.4 51.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 38.5 37.6 51.3 99.4 56.4 51.0 30.2 35.7 45.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 37.0 40.9 61.3 102.0 57.7 52.8 24.2 32.7 44.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 29.4 32.0 40.5 100.1 56.0 51.8 18.7 26.3 37.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 67.9 67.4 56.2 101.1 56.7 52.7 51.2 63.6 71.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 34.8 33.3 52.2 102.4 56.2 52.6 27.2 30.3 41.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 49.0 53.9 57.4 102.4 57.6 53.1 28.6 44.9 57.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 40.8 39.2 49.7 101.1 56.2 52.5 26.1 37.2 50.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 43.6 42.8 48.7 99.5 54.4 51.8 25.7 39.5 53.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 44.1 42.7 55.0 101.2 53.7 52.4 27.9 41.4 48.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 50.9 50.6 55.2 101.4 56.9 52.3 38.4 46.5 58.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 38.3 27.3 42.1 81.9 45.2 41.3 23.4 33.3 41.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 35.7 34.8 52.4 101.0 55.7 52.5 28.1 32.8 37.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 29.5 28.4 39.3 101.5 58.9 52.1 21.2 26.1 40.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 40.9 40.0 63.6 102.6 56.7 53.1 29.9 37.8 44.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 36.0 33.6 42.1 99.9 55.4 52.0 19.2 32.3 44.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 40.9 38.1 72.6 103.6 55.7 53.7 29.8 36.0 49.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 35.2 32.9 47.5 100.5 53.2 51.8 26.6 30.9 46.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 32.2 30.7 40.4 100.6 56.7 51.6 22.8 28.0 35.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 36.2 37.0 45.2 101.3 59.1 52.7 20.5 32.6 47.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 49.0 54.1 55.7 102.2 57.2 52.9 33.2 44.2 59.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 38.2 34.5 51.9 98.5 51.8 50.8 26.2 34.2 38.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 37.6 38.0 51.8 99.1 54.5 50.9 23.6 34.5 40.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 32.3 31.1 48.7 98.8 54.6 50.9 23.0 29.8 38.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 32.5 26.3 45.2 86.3 47.4 44.0 21.5 29.4 38.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 63.1 78.4 68.6 105.9 59.0 55.5 35.8 55.6 85.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 34.1 35.3 41.9 99.5 55.3 52.0 14.6 31.5 40.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------