***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 10.8 111.3 63.9 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.7 8.0 10.0 106.3 66.4 52.6 0.4 3.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.0 8.6 11.2 115.4 65.9 54.8 0.4 2.9 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.6 11.5 12.2 107.3 65.0 52.8 3.1 8.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.5 8.6 12.1 111.5 65.8 53.7 1.0 5.4 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.0 14.8 113.2 65.2 54.3 3.2 5.8 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.6 7.5 9.9 103.8 65.1 53.1 0.3 2.6 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.4 14.5 13.7 112.9 65.5 53.5 4.5 11.6 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.9 7.7 12.1 113.7 65.5 54.4 0.8 3.2 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.3 13.6 111.1 63.7 53.6 1.5 3.9 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.1 11.7 111.4 64.6 53.4 1.2 3.2 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.4 11.8 113.1 64.9 53.3 0.9 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.4 13.7 116.1 65.5 54.6 3.9 6.9 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 1.9 7.0 13.9 115.8 64.1 53.9 1.8 3.9 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.1 7.4 11.6 104.6 65.3 51.7 2.8 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.0 12.4 111.1 63.5 53.4 2.1 5.1 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.8 7.8 9.9 110.0 68.6 53.7 0.7 3.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 4.6 4.8 15.5 110.7 61.7 53.1 1.5 3.0 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.3 7.0 10.3 108.0 64.8 52.2 0.4 2.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.6 18.1 113.0 64.3 53.3 2.9 5.4 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.4 9.3 11.4 114.5 68.3 55.3 0.4 2.3 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.4 9.6 9.9 108.3 68.0 52.0 1.1 3.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.3 7.4 11.0 110.8 63.8 51.8 0.8 2.7 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.9 13.6 113.8 63.0 53.9 1.6 6.3 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.9 9.2 13.0 111.8 65.7 53.9 1.6 5.1 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.2 11.2 13.6 125.7 67.1 57.0 0.4 6.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.3 8.3 12.3 111.8 64.8 53.8 1.1 3.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.4 7.5 11.7 104.2 63.8 52.2 1.3 4.4 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.8 16.3 111.4 61.1 52.7 4.1 7.4 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 0.7 8.3 10.3 107.9 66.4 52.8 0.3 1.5 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------