***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.6 94.8 66.3 52.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.4 11.8 12.0 102.6 71.4 53.5 2.9 4.9 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.1 7.2 12.3 94.7 66.4 52.8 2.6 4.8 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.4 14.3 92.3 60.8 52.8 6.5 9.5 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.3 14.2 92.6 60.7 52.2 2.2 6.9 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.0 16.8 92.9 57.4 50.7 5.6 7.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.0 8.1 12.3 105.1 69.4 54.0 1.8 4.3 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.8 14.8 91.5 57.8 52.7 8.4 13.4 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.9 13.8 90.7 59.9 51.4 1.2 5.8 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.0 11.3 14.9 91.5 57.4 52.2 2.2 7.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.3 12.5 13.4 93.7 58.7 52.8 3.0 4.8 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.1 13.1 13.3 91.8 58.5 52.6 2.7 10.0 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.8 16.0 15.0 93.1 59.1 51.1 5.3 12.9 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.0 20.5 14.7 96.7 66.2 52.2 6.1 12.1 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.4 13.1 87.1 60.0 51.8 2.0 6.7 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.6 13.7 14.2 93.7 57.9 51.6 2.0 6.9 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.1 10.1 11.5 106.1 70.5 53.4 2.8 4.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.1 16.5 93.7 56.8 52.3 3.4 9.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.5 11.9 11.9 99.8 70.0 52.8 1.9 6.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.7 9.8 19.3 99.2 57.5 53.9 5.6 7.6 12.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.7 12.6 89.5 61.5 51.1 2.8 6.4 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.0 14.1 11.9 107.2 70.1 54.3 3.7 7.5 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.5 13.5 12.0 96.8 67.7 51.9 4.4 8.9 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.6 14.6 94.2 60.5 52.2 4.4 9.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.9 15.0 96.3 64.2 53.7 4.2 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.8 14.1 91.7 56.2 51.4 3.6 6.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.6 11.4 14.6 99.9 66.8 53.9 2.3 4.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.3 11.8 13.8 90.2 59.1 51.5 3.1 7.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 14.3 15.4 17.8 98.9 57.7 53.9 8.2 12.0 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.5 7.8 12.3 100.6 69.7 53.8 2.8 4.4 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------