***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.8 148.6 73.4 60.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 14.1 18.2 14.2 147.1 74.7 61.5 1.0 3.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.3 15.0 14.4 146.1 73.4 59.9 2.3 5.6 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.9 13.1 113.9 62.6 54.1 4.9 8.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.8 14.4 128.5 65.9 57.5 4.6 9.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.6 14.5 105.2 59.5 52.2 2.3 6.9 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 11.5 13.3 14.0 148.1 74.7 61.7 1.0 3.8 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.2 24.5 14.4 118.6 66.8 55.1 7.3 15.1 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.5 13.7 15.3 141.1 70.8 58.9 4.2 6.6 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.4 20.0 15.3 127.3 67.7 55.9 5.8 11.9 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.5 17.2 13.0 122.5 64.7 56.6 3.6 12.0 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.5 17.6 12.6 118.4 68.6 56.5 4.4 7.6 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.2 14.2 13.2 108.3 65.7 53.6 3.8 8.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.9 18.5 16.8 137.3 74.0 58.0 6.0 10.1 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.6 7.5 10.6 96.5 58.3 49.4 0.8 3.3 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.8 14.0 13.0 112.1 65.9 55.2 3.6 7.2 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 10.4 13.0 13.9 145.6 73.8 61.3 2.3 5.7 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.9 14.4 17.1 124.7 65.9 54.4 4.3 7.8 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.3 23.0 14.6 148.7 76.2 61.3 0.7 4.8 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.7 11.9 19.3 118.8 65.5 55.5 4.1 5.8 11.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.1 12.4 14.7 147.1 71.0 59.3 3.8 6.8 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 13.2 14.6 14.7 148.0 72.7 62.4 1.7 5.5 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.8 17.0 15.3 149.8 78.6 61.2 1.9 3.0 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.6 22.0 16.3 137.2 71.8 57.3 5.4 10.4 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.1 9.0 15.6 138.4 67.2 60.0 2.0 6.8 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.3 12.9 105.2 61.6 52.7 3.1 7.2 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 10.3 8.3 15.2 144.5 71.1 61.0 3.0 4.9 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.7 11.2 97.9 58.4 49.7 0.8 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 29.9 18.5 126.3 68.0 56.0 6.7 14.2 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.7 16.2 14.1 147.6 74.5 61.3 1.5 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------