***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.0 49.3 32.6 32.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 0.9 1.1 4.8 46.8 39.5 33.4 0.9 2.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 1.4 3.4 6.9 55.6 35.8 33.9 3.1 4.4 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.3 3.8 8.3 56.5 34.6 33.9 3.5 6.1 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 1.5 2.5 10.7 74.6 43.0 40.7 1.6 3.2 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.9 15.2 100.3 59.2 52.9 1.6 3.9 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 0.9 1.3 4.4 44.5 37.8 32.2 0.5 2.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.0 11.1 13.3 87.7 47.7 45.4 7.5 11.8 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.5 11.0 76.9 41.9 41.2 1.8 4.4 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.3 6.3 13.7 87.8 46.9 45.3 2.3 7.3 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.0 6.2 11.5 84.2 48.7 44.6 2.4 6.3 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.3 11.0 82.0 48.1 43.8 2.5 3.7 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.7 13.2 91.9 54.7 48.7 2.4 4.7 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 2.8 2.9 9.8 65.2 39.7 37.1 2.1 6.9 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 0.7 0.3 6.8 47.7 32.7 30.3 0.3 1.7 3.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.4 12.9 91.8 54.6 49.0 1.9 5.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.0 1.3 3.9 42.2 38.9 31.2 0.5 2.5 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.3 4.1 14.6 87.2 47.8 45.1 2.5 4.8 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 1.4 1.6 5.3 48.8 38.8 33.5 1.4 4.0 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.6 15.9 86.6 48.7 45.4 2.8 3.6 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 1.2 2.2 8.9 66.6 39.3 37.6 1.2 3.4 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 0.9 0.5 4.0 39.2 35.7 30.1 0.5 2.4 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 0.8 0.9 7.0 57.4 38.8 35.5 0.5 2.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 2.5 4.5 11.1 73.3 41.9 39.7 2.1 6.1 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 1.1 0.9 8.2 58.0 35.5 34.7 0.6 3.6 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 3.6 2.2 11.2 81.0 47.4 44.9 1.0 2.2 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 1.3 1.0 6.6 50.1 32.6 31.7 1.1 4.9 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.9 2.2 8.5 59.0 37.9 34.6 2.0 3.2 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.6 8.3 16.0 91.6 50.9 47.8 4.8 8.3 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 0.8 0.9 5.2 48.3 37.3 33.8 0.6 2.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------