***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 13.5 1.1 72.1 66.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 14.8 15.3 13.5 1.1 71.8 66.3 13.1 14.0 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.4 13.6 1.1 71.6 65.5 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.6 11.6 1.3 73.8 67.0 5.0 6.2 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 15.6 15.5 11.9 1.1 69.5 64.8 13.8 14.4 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.6 14.0 9.8 0.8 66.9 61.6 12.0 13.3 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 14.5 14.9 13.3 1.1 71.3 65.9 12.8 13.4 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 3.1 3.3 10.1 0.6 64.1 59.5 1.3 2.7 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 14.6 15.1 12.6 1.0 69.3 64.1 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.4 15.1 11.0 0.8 65.6 60.7 13.3 13.9 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.4 15.3 11.5 0.9 67.7 63.3 13.5 14.0 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.2 10.9 0.8 65.8 61.1 12.2 13.3 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.2 10.5 0.7 65.3 60.4 13.1 14.6 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.1 12.4 0.9 67.7 61.7 13.6 14.5 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 15.0 15.5 12.3 1.5 77.9 69.8 12.9 14.0 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 15.9 15.8 11.1 0.9 67.5 63.4 13.6 14.9 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 13.3 14.5 13.2 1.1 70.9 65.5 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.3 10.3 0.6 63.2 58.2 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.1 13.6 1.1 72.1 66.2 13.0 14.0 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.4 7.7 0.3 60.3 55.3 7.9 8.8 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 15.5 15.4 13.2 1.1 70.5 64.6 13.8 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 46 54 100 14.9 15.1 13.3 1.0 71.8 65.2 13.0 14.1 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 15.4 15.5 13.6 1.1 71.7 65.4 13.5 14.3 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.1 12.2 0.8 66.8 61.3 13.6 14.4 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 15.0 14.9 12.1 1.1 70.8 65.2 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.7 10.0 0.6 65.7 59.4 12.6 13.5 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.4 12.8 1.1 71.0 65.0 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 15.3 15.9 11.9 1.3 75.0 67.7 13.3 14.0 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.2 9.2 0.5 61.6 56.8 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 14.8 15.2 13.6 1.1 72.0 66.5 12.9 13.8 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------