***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 15.7 1.0 64.7 59.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 18.4 17.6 15.5 1.0 67.4 59.1 16.2 16.8 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.9 18.0 15.8 1.0 66.7 59.3 16.4 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.7 13.9 0.9 61.3 58.7 7.9 9.3 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.8 17.7 14.2 1.0 63.0 58.8 16.4 16.8 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 17.8 17.1 12.4 1.0 64.8 59.0 14.5 15.1 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.0 15.4 1.0 66.3 59.1 16.0 16.6 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 6.0 6.2 12.7 0.9 64.9 57.7 3.3 4.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 18.8 17.6 14.7 1.0 64.8 58.8 16.1 16.7 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 18.8 18.1 13.5 1.0 65.0 58.1 15.9 16.9 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 19.0 18.3 13.8 1.0 64.9 58.9 16.1 16.5 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 18.0 17.4 13.4 0.9 65.5 58.0 14.7 15.9 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 19.3 17.8 13.0 0.9 65.3 58.3 15.6 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 18.5 17.8 14.6 1.0 63.3 58.5 16.4 17.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.1 14.1 0.9 64.0 59.5 15.1 16.4 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 19.1 18.3 13.5 1.0 64.3 59.0 16.3 17.0 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 17.2 17.0 15.3 0.9 65.3 59.2 15.5 15.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.6 12.9 1.0 64.3 57.9 15.6 16.5 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 18.0 17.5 15.7 1.0 66.6 59.1 16.1 16.8 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 12.8 12.1 10.4 0.9 63.2 57.4 10.0 11.5 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.5 18.3 15.3 1.0 65.5 58.9 16.5 16.8 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.5 15.4 0.9 63.4 58.6 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.6 15.7 1.0 65.2 59.0 16.7 17.2 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 18.8 17.8 14.5 1.0 65.8 58.7 16.0 17.1 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.7 14.2 0.9 62.2 58.3 15.8 16.9 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 17.9 17.6 12.5 0.7 65.4 57.2 14.7 15.5 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.7 14.9 0.9 63.2 58.5 16.4 16.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.6 14.1 1.0 63.0 59.2 15.5 16.3 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.6 11.9 1.0 64.3 58.1 10.0 11.1 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 18.2 17.3 15.7 1.0 67.2 59.2 16.2 16.7 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------