***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 14.3 2.7 81.2 74.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 14.3 16.4 14.1 2.5 78.4 73.2 9.9 11.2 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 15.7 17.6 14.6 2.8 80.6 74.2 9.3 12.6 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 8.4 11.4 13.0 3.3 85.0 77.5 0.7 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 15.9 18.3 13.2 3.1 82.5 75.4 8.9 12.7 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 15.2 16.8 11.6 3.5 83.8 76.8 7.2 12.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 14.0 15.6 13.9 2.4 77.2 73.0 9.8 11.3 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 3.6 6.0 11.6 2.8 80.8 72.6 -1.6 0.2 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 15.6 18.0 13.7 3.0 80.7 74.1 8.4 12.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 15.4 18.1 12.4 2.8 79.9 72.4 7.9 12.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 15.9 18.2 12.8 3.0 82.8 74.5 8.6 12.7 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 15.2 17.2 12.5 2.9 82.4 73.9 7.2 12.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 15.7 18.1 12.0 3.0 82.4 74.5 8.4 12.8 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 15.4 17.2 13.5 2.6 76.9 71.5 9.8 12.6 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 16.4 17.9 13.2 3.4 86.2 79.1 9.6 13.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.5 18.7 12.5 3.1 83.1 75.5 8.9 13.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.9 13.6 2.2 74.8 71.6 9.2 10.5 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 14.7 16.2 11.7 2.6 75.9 70.1 7.9 12.0 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 14.9 17.2 14.3 2.6 79.2 73.4 10.1 11.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 9.9 11.7 9.1 2.5 73.7 69.3 3.5 7.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 16.0 18.0 14.3 2.9 81.3 74.7 8.9 12.7 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 14.3 16.0 13.9 2.3 76.4 71.5 9.9 11.3 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 15.3 17.6 14.5 2.6 79.7 73.3 9.9 12.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 15.3 17.3 13.4 2.7 77.4 71.6 9.6 12.5 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 15.5 17.4 13.0 2.9 81.8 75.2 9.3 12.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 15.3 16.8 11.6 3.0 81.5 75.9 7.9 11.8 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 15.4 17.2 13.5 2.7 79.9 74.0 9.6 12.2 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 16.7 18.9 13.3 3.4 85.8 78.4 8.9 14.1 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 9.6 11.3 10.6 2.5 74.1 69.2 2.9 6.9 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 14.6 16.9 14.3 2.6 79.7 73.8 9.9 11.5 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------