***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 9999.0 0.0 10.1 -0.1 49.4 50.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 11.5 11.4 10.4 0.2 54.3 52.3 9.0 11.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 12.0 11.6 9.9 -0.4 49.6 48.0 10.3 11.6 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 3.9 3.4 7.2 -0.3 48.9 48.9 1.3 3.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 11.9 10.7 7.6 -1.0 46.8 44.0 9.8 11.5 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 7.5 7.8 4.0 -2.6 28.6 29.7 8.1 9.2 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 11.1 11.1 10.3 0.2 54.8 52.4 9.1 10.7 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.9 -1.1 4.8 -2.2 35.4 34.4 -1.4 1.2 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.9 11.3 8.6 -1.0 48.0 43.9 9.7 11.3 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.0 10.2 6.2 -1.8 40.0 37.8 9.4 11.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.8 10.1 6.9 -1.5 41.6 39.8 9.6 11.2 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.5 9.4 5.8 -1.9 35.8 35.5 9.2 10.8 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 9.8 9.6 5.5 -2.3 28.4 31.1 9.7 11.6 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 13.1 12.2 8.6 -1.0 47.4 44.3 10.1 12.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 11.5 11.4 9.1 0.2 52.9 52.5 9.3 11.2 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.2 10.4 6.4 -1.7 39.1 37.7 10.1 11.5 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 10.9 10.9 10.3 0.4 55.6 54.0 8.2 10.6 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 9.2 5.3 -2.1 35.4 35.3 9.1 11.4 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 11.8 11.8 10.4 0.1 52.9 51.3 9.3 11.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.6 4.3 2.5 -2.8 25.3 27.8 4.7 7.5 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 11.9 11.4 9.4 -0.8 48.6 45.5 9.8 11.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 12.2 12.3 10.3 0.3 53.7 53.4 9.3 11.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 12.6 12.3 10.1 -0.2 50.4 49.3 9.5 12.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.7 11.0 7.9 -1.4 43.6 41.4 10.5 12.2 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 11.1 10.4 8.6 -0.3 48.3 48.6 9.3 10.7 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 9.1 9.6 4.6 -2.4 27.8 29.3 9.8 11.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 11.2 10.7 9.5 -0.2 49.3 49.4 9.6 10.9 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 11.8 11.4 7.7 -0.5 48.5 47.8 9.2 11.4 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 4.4 4.3 -2.3 33.9 33.1 4.4 7.5 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 11.3 11.2 10.4 0.1 53.0 51.4 9.1 10.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------