***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 3.9 1.1 74.1 70.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 3.6 4.1 3.9 1.2 77.5 72.6 2.0 2.9 3.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 6.0 6.1 3.7 1.0 74.5 70.8 4.5 5.3 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 -0.3 0.0 1.3 1.1 76.3 71.6 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 2.8 3.0 1.6 1.1 75.1 71.2 1.7 2.2 2.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 1.9 2.0 -0.3 1.0 72.4 68.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 3.8 4.2 3.9 1.3 77.5 73.6 2.4 3.0 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 -3.3 -3.5 -0.3 0.7 64.8 63.5 -4.8 -4.4 -3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 3.6 4.0 2.3 1.2 79.0 72.3 2.2 3.1 3.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 3.6 3.6 0.5 0.9 70.0 66.5 2.3 3.3 3.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 3.4 3.5 1.1 0.9 72.1 69.1 2.2 3.1 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.7 69.9 66.6 0.9 1.5 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 3.1 3.1 0.3 0.8 71.2 67.4 1.7 2.7 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 46 54 100 4.1 4.3 2.1 0.9 68.7 67.1 2.7 3.6 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 3.8 4.2 2.1 1.3 78.4 74.8 2.4 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 4.1 4.2 0.7 0.9 74.0 69.4 2.7 3.5 4.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 3.9 4.2 3.8 1.2 76.5 73.0 2.6 3.1 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 1.5 1.6 -0.2 0.8 64.5 64.3 0.3 1.1 1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 3.6 3.9 3.8 1.1 77.1 71.8 2.0 3.1 3.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -1.4 -1.2 -2.2 0.5 56.8 58.4 -2.1 -1.6 -1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 3.6 3.9 3.2 1.1 76.0 71.0 2.4 3.1 3.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 3.1 3.5 3.7 1.2 74.6 72.1 1.9 2.3 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 3.2 3.6 3.4 1.0 76.3 70.8 2.1 2.7 3.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 3.5 3.5 1.8 0.9 70.4 67.7 2.2 3.1 3.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 3.6 3.8 2.3 1.0 71.1 69.4 2.4 2.8 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 2.5 2.9 0.3 0.7 66.9 64.2 1.6 2.3 2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 4.1 4.0 3.1 1.1 72.7 70.3 2.7 3.3 3.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.5 1.7 1.2 77.6 73.5 0.8 1.5 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 0.8 0.4 -0.9 0.7 63.4 62.1 -0.6 0.1 0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 4.0 4.3 4.0 1.2 76.2 72.3 2.5 3.4 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------