***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 5.7 1.0 65.8 62.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.1 6.1 5.5 0.9 67.8 62.0 4.6 5.1 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 8.6 8.9 5.4 1.1 66.8 62.8 6.4 7.6 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 2.8 2.6 3.1 1.1 64.4 63.5 0.3 1.4 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 5.2 5.0 3.3 1.1 65.3 64.0 2.4 4.6 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 4.3 4.0 1.5 1.2 66.9 65.6 1.4 2.6 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 6.5 6.3 5.5 1.0 67.5 62.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 -0.9 -1.2 1.6 0.9 64.9 62.2 -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 6.0 5.8 3.8 1.2 66.2 63.8 4.0 5.6 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 6.1 6.2 2.3 1.1 65.8 63.2 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.8 2.9 1.1 66.7 64.8 3.8 4.8 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 4.3 4.6 2.4 1.0 66.9 63.2 2.2 3.2 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.4 2.0 1.1 67.2 64.9 2.4 3.6 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 6.5 6.6 3.8 1.0 66.0 62.8 4.2 5.6 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.0 3.5 1.1 66.4 63.9 4.3 5.1 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 6.6 6.9 2.5 1.1 67.0 65.0 4.0 5.6 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 6.1 6.4 5.3 0.9 67.0 61.2 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 3.5 3.4 1.7 1.1 64.4 63.5 1.4 3.0 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 6.1 6.2 5.4 0.9 68.0 62.1 4.3 5.2 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 0.9 0.8 -0.1 0.8 62.3 61.5 -0.6 0.2 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 5.7 5.7 4.8 1.1 66.5 62.9 3.9 5.3 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 5.5 5.6 5.2 0.8 65.6 61.2 4.0 4.7 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 5.5 5.9 5.0 1.0 68.0 62.4 3.6 4.7 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.6 3.6 1.1 65.7 63.7 4.1 5.3 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 5.9 6.0 3.9 1.0 62.5 62.5 3.8 4.9 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 5.3 4.8 2.1 0.9 64.0 61.9 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 7.0 6.3 4.8 1.0 63.7 61.9 4.8 5.7 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 4.4 4.4 3.3 1.1 66.4 64.3 2.2 3.6 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 3.4 3.2 1.2 1.0 64.2 63.9 1.1 2.3 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 6.7 6.7 5.6 1.0 67.5 62.2 4.3 5.7 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------