***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 4.6 1.2 67.8 63.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 4.7 4.6 4.4 1.2 69.2 63.3 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 7.1 7.2 4.4 1.2 69.9 64.2 5.1 6.3 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 1.7 2.0 2.3 1.4 74.8 68.3 -1.4 0.4 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 5.0 5.5 2.4 1.4 75.4 67.6 1.2 3.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 3.5 4.1 0.7 1.4 77.9 69.1 0.8 2.3 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.3 5.1 4.5 1.3 69.0 63.9 3.0 4.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -0.8 -1.3 0.7 0.9 70.5 62.9 -4.9 -3.2 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 5.7 6.3 3.0 1.4 74.7 66.4 2.5 4.2 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 5.4 5.6 1.4 1.1 70.7 64.0 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 5.5 5.8 2.0 1.3 74.2 67.1 2.0 3.7 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 3.5 3.7 1.6 1.1 73.8 65.3 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 4.7 5.2 1.2 1.3 76.8 68.1 1.4 3.6 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.3 5.3 2.8 0.9 68.7 61.8 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 5.1 5.4 2.8 1.4 75.7 69.1 2.7 3.9 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 5.9 6.1 1.6 1.3 75.8 68.5 2.9 3.8 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.1 4.9 4.3 1.1 69.1 62.3 3.1 3.8 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 1.7 2.4 0.6 0.9 64.2 61.2 0.2 1.2 2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 4.8 5.2 4.3 1.1 69.5 63.1 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -0.4 -1.3 0.7 58.9 58.8 -2.8 -0.8 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 5.2 5.7 3.9 1.3 72.1 65.1 2.3 3.8 5.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.5 4.4 4.2 1.0 67.7 60.6 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 4.3 4.6 4.0 1.1 69.5 63.0 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 4.5 4.8 2.6 1.0 68.9 62.8 2.3 3.5 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 5.3 5.6 3.0 1.2 69.6 64.6 2.9 3.9 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 4.5 5.0 1.3 1.1 75.6 65.4 1.5 3.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.3 3.9 1.2 68.5 63.8 2.8 4.7 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 3.9 4.4 2.5 1.5 76.1 69.5 1.6 2.4 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 1.6 1.9 -0.1 0.7 59.4 60.0 -0.8 1.1 2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 5.6 5.5 4.5 1.2 68.2 63.7 3.3 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------