***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 0.0 4.3 2.4 81.1 78.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 4.2 5.0 4.5 2.6 83.7 80.7 0.1 1.7 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 6.1 7.4 3.9 2.1 81.6 77.3 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 1.3 2.7 1.5 2.1 83.5 79.1 -4.9 -1.9 -0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 2.5 3.3 1.5 1.9 80.2 76.4 -0.6 0.9 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 1.7 2.2 -0.4 1.7 76.4 73.2 -1.2 0.2 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 4.2 6.1 4.6 2.7 86.1 81.3 -0.1 2.1 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 -3.7 -2.6 -0.3 1.4 71.8 67.8 -8.2 -5.9 -3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 3.9 5.1 2.2 2.0 80.7 76.3 0.6 1.9 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 3.0 3.7 0.4 1.7 74.0 70.0 0.3 1.3 3.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 3.0 3.7 0.7 1.4 75.1 70.2 -0.2 1.3 3.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 1.5 2.4 0.5 1.3 73.2 69.5 -0.9 0.2 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 2.6 2.7 0.1 1.5 72.0 71.4 -0.2 1.5 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 4.7 5.7 2.2 1.8 77.1 73.5 1.1 2.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 4.5 4.9 2.2 2.3 86.5 81.1 0.3 2.7 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 3.7 4.1 0.5 1.5 74.8 72.1 0.4 2.3 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 4.1 5.3 4.6 2.7 85.5 81.5 0.3 2.3 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 1.0 1.5 -0.3 1.7 68.6 67.3 -0.8 -0.2 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 4.3 5.1 4.3 2.4 83.2 79.8 -0.1 2.3 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -2.3 -1.7 -1.9 1.8 64.4 65.7 -4.3 -2.7 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 3.6 4.4 3.3 2.1 81.0 77.1 0.7 1.8 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 3.8 5.0 4.4 2.5 84.9 80.8 0.2 1.6 2.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 3.1 3.9 3.7 2.2 83.0 78.2 0.3 1.2 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 3.3 4.2 1.7 1.8 75.2 71.7 0.4 1.5 2.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 3.4 4.2 2.5 2.2 82.6 78.8 0.5 1.7 3.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 2.4 2.6 0.6 1.7 76.3 73.3 0.2 1.6 2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 4.2 5.2 3.6 2.4 82.1 78.9 0.2 1.8 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 2.6 3.9 1.8 2.1 84.5 79.0 -0.9 0.1 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -0.4 0.4 -1.0 1.6 64.9 65.4 -4.0 -1.1 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 4.6 5.7 4.4 2.5 83.6 79.8 0.2 2.4 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------