***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 9999.0 0.0 0.9 -0.3 50.3 48.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 99 1 100 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.2 50.6 51.5 -0.4 0.7 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 2.6 2.4 0.9 -0.2 49.3 48.5 1.3 2.5 3.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 98 2 100 -3.5 -3.6 -1.5 -0.2 44.9 44.9 -5.2 -3.5 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.2 43.2 44.1 -1.3 -0.3 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 -0.6 -1.3 -3.0 -0.4 36.8 39.0 -1.6 -0.9 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 99 1 100 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.2 54.1 52.3 -0.4 0.4 1.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -5.9 -7.4 -3.0 -0.7 33.3 38.3 -7.4 -6.8 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 94 6 100 0.8 0.8 -0.1 0.1 52.2 49.9 -0.1 0.7 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 1.4 -0.1 -2.1 -0.4 39.8 42.6 -0.2 1.1 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 0.9 0.0 -1.2 -0.2 41.7 43.4 -0.4 0.8 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 -0.4 -1.0 -2.0 -0.4 39.7 40.8 -1.4 -0.7 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 0.8 -0.1 -2.2 -0.5 37.1 37.1 -0.2 0.5 1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 1.8 0.6 -0.5 -0.3 45.2 45.1 0.0 1.7 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 98 2 100 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.3 50.8 50.4 -0.2 1.0 1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 1.3 0.3 -1.7 -0.3 40.0 40.8 0.2 1.1 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 99 1 100 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.3 53.5 52.1 -0.1 0.7 2.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 -0.2 -1.3 -2.9 -0.4 41.1 41.6 -1.8 -0.4 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 99 1 100 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.1 49.0 50.6 -0.4 0.6 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 -5.6 -4.6 -5.7 -1.5 28.9 31.9 -4.3 -3.1 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 0.3 0.0 0.6 -0.3 47.9 47.5 -0.2 0.1 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 98 2 100 0.3 0.3 1.1 0.3 51.2 52.5 -0.2 0.3 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 98 2 100 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.0 49.2 49.4 -0.4 0.3 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 0.8 0.3 -0.7 -0.2 46.2 45.8 0.0 0.7 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 0.6 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 43.4 43.9 -0.2 0.5 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 0.8 -0.6 -2.8 -0.9 33.9 35.0 -0.6 0.4 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 0.7 0.6 0.3 -0.3 47.5 46.9 -0.1 0.7 1.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 97 3 100 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 0.1 47.4 47.3 -1.1 -0.7 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 -1.9 -3.0 -3.6 -0.6 38.3 40.2 -3.4 -2.5 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 99 1 100 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.1 51.8 51.3 -0.3 0.7 1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------