***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 15.9 28.2 50.6 97.3 54.8 48.9 14.7 23.3 36.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 18.1 30.6 45.6 96.9 52.5 48.9 16.1 29.9 37.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 22.9 39.8 52.5 101.6 57.7 51.5 20.3 34.8 53.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 42.6 39.1 56.7 95.2 51.4 48.3 30.4 38.0 51.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 39.6 37.2 56.9 97.3 53.8 49.5 31.2 36.7 45.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 25.4 43.9 59.8 101.3 58.4 50.9 25.8 32.7 46.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 31.5 32.0 44.5 95.9 52.1 48.4 16.5 27.7 37.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 67.8 65.2 60.5 99.4 56.1 50.8 50.0 62.1 72.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 37.7 33.8 58.0 99.0 53.6 50.5 23.2 32.3 41.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 50.2 53.6 62.7 99.9 55.0 51.0 28.5 45.3 57.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 42.4 38.8 54.7 96.4 52.6 48.7 26.1 37.4 51.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 40.7 43.8 54.8 100.3 57.5 51.6 26.0 34.2 52.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 29.3 43.0 59.6 99.5 56.7 50.3 31.6 41.6 48.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 54.9 53.7 65.9 99.9 57.6 51.1 35.3 50.0 58.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 38.2 35.0 52.8 96.9 56.0 49.3 23.4 33.3 47.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 37.3 35.8 55.9 97.6 54.5 49.4 27.6 34.0 38.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 30.6 25.2 43.6 95.3 50.5 47.9 18.6 25.0 36.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 42.3 40.3 67.2 102.7 56.5 52.6 29.9 38.8 46.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 37.7 32.4 47.6 98.0 53.8 49.7 19.3 32.2 44.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 41.1 37.1 71.2 96.7 51.4 49.0 27.7 36.0 48.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 36.4 35.6 55.3 99.8 55.9 50.7 26.9 31.0 44.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 31.0 26.7 47.0 96.7 52.0 48.8 20.3 26.4 33.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 36.7 34.6 51.2 98.6 55.3 50.6 21.1 32.6 46.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 51.9 55.9 63.2 103.5 59.3 52.8 33.2 47.8 58.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 38.5 34.2 57.0 96.4 53.2 48.5 25.4 33.8 37.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 22.4 36.0 56.0 97.9 52.7 47.8 24.9 34.8 40.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 33.0 31.0 53.3 96.8 53.0 48.5 22.5 29.8 37.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 34.4 33.3 55.1 97.3 55.0 49.4 22.0 31.7 39.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 61.7 71.4 69.1 101.7 54.6 52.2 39.7 53.4 85.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 17.6 34.8 47.1 98.0 53.7 49.7 13.8 29.8 39.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------