***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.0 1.7 11.4 80.8 48.8 42.7 0.6 1.8 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.5 3.0 9.8 77.9 48.0 41.7 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.8 4.9 11.5 83.4 50.6 43.4 2.5 4.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.9 9.6 13.4 84.6 52.4 43.6 6.9 9.1 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.0 12.9 83.3 50.4 44.1 2.4 4.9 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.9 7.4 14.6 93.2 52.7 47.0 3.9 7.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.3 9.9 79.1 47.2 42.2 0.5 3.4 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.2 14.3 92.3 52.4 46.9 4.9 9.5 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.7 13.6 85.1 50.8 44.3 1.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.3 14.5 86.9 49.6 44.9 2.4 5.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.1 12.4 85.3 49.9 44.6 1.5 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.6 6.2 12.7 91.3 53.0 46.8 2.4 5.8 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.4 5.1 13.3 84.5 50.1 44.6 3.0 5.1 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.7 4.2 14.4 80.8 47.7 42.9 2.2 4.2 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 3.0 10.0 14.1 95.7 60.5 44.6 3.4 7.4 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.4 12.6 84.2 50.1 44.4 2.3 5.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.5 2.8 9.5 76.3 48.4 41.1 0.7 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.4 15.6 89.4 51.7 45.9 1.4 3.2 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.4 2.8 10.0 76.7 49.1 41.7 0.7 3.0 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.7 7.5 16.6 87.1 49.3 45.7 3.0 7.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.5 12.7 85.1 51.5 44.4 0.8 5.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.4 2.9 9.9 74.1 50.7 41.2 1.3 2.9 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.3 5.1 10.5 75.6 49.4 41.8 2.1 5.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.0 14.5 89.1 52.6 45.1 2.1 6.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.3 5.3 12.8 80.9 50.5 43.3 3.1 5.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.8 13.3 90.2 51.9 45.6 1.9 7.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.3 2.8 11.8 79.6 48.5 42.4 1.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.8 7.1 13.7 91.1 56.3 44.6 2.9 6.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 9.0 16.0 88.7 50.9 45.8 5.9 8.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.2 2.2 10.2 78.9 47.1 41.9 1.0 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------