***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.2 7.3 10.7 84.5 53.4 45.4 2.7 6.8 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.7 8.8 10.7 99.1 59.9 47.4 2.1 4.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.1 5.7 11.2 89.4 56.8 46.5 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.3 13.1 86.7 60.8 46.6 4.5 7.0 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.2 8.3 12.0 81.9 56.3 45.6 2.9 7.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.8 12.7 14.4 94.7 60.8 49.0 6.7 9.4 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.9 5.8 10.3 96.6 57.7 47.3 1.6 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.8 17.5 13.3 87.3 56.8 47.2 7.5 16.1 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.6 12.4 82.7 55.1 45.2 1.2 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.4 13.6 86.5 56.0 46.7 3.5 8.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.3 11.9 85.2 57.7 46.3 3.8 8.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.6 12.5 12.1 88.3 58.4 47.2 3.9 9.4 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.2 13.1 13.4 89.5 59.3 47.1 6.6 9.9 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.4 15.1 14.5 89.0 57.9 46.3 7.3 11.0 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.2 10.4 13.2 90.3 60.6 46.9 1.2 4.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.3 12.9 89.3 60.4 47.6 2.0 9.5 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.1 6.3 10.1 95.4 59.2 45.9 2.1 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 9.3 14.7 88.1 54.6 47.2 6.6 8.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.8 11.0 97.6 59.8 47.6 1.9 6.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.3 15.9 86.0 54.0 46.8 6.2 8.2 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.8 7.6 11.5 83.8 53.1 45.1 3.0 7.1 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.3 7.5 10.6 93.1 56.9 45.1 3.3 5.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.4 10.2 11.4 93.0 60.8 47.4 3.3 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.3 11.0 13.5 87.4 56.3 46.3 5.0 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.0 11.8 81.9 52.4 44.5 3.7 7.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.8 12.6 84.9 55.0 44.7 3.3 5.8 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.2 11.1 83.3 53.0 44.7 2.3 5.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.1 9.4 13.5 90.7 63.0 47.9 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 13.2 15.3 88.6 54.6 47.7 9.5 12.2 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.1 6.4 10.8 95.9 58.6 47.3 1.6 4.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------