***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.2 13.6 111.1 59.1 51.3 2.1 3.7 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.4 7.1 12.5 110.2 60.1 50.0 1.4 3.2 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.9 10.5 15.2 121.0 65.5 53.5 2.4 5.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.7 13.1 17.2 121.1 68.2 57.4 4.7 8.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.3 13.1 16.7 121.4 65.5 56.6 4.4 9.9 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.9 14.7 17.6 125.9 72.7 55.4 2.4 6.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.0 5.4 11.7 105.6 60.1 49.6 2.3 4.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.5 25.9 17.4 122.3 69.1 54.8 9.3 16.8 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.2 17.1 123.5 66.4 56.0 4.6 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 16.0 18.9 17.3 122.1 67.1 54.4 6.5 14.2 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.8 17.2 16.6 121.6 67.1 56.3 3.8 12.4 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.6 17.7 16.8 127.1 71.4 57.8 5.0 7.5 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.0 15.5 17.6 125.6 67.9 56.9 4.0 8.1 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.8 14.9 18.8 122.0 68.1 53.3 4.8 10.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.9 9.6 15.7 121.7 70.0 58.1 0.8 3.3 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.7 12.9 16.9 124.5 70.6 57.2 4.4 6.4 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.9 12.4 114.4 62.7 50.7 2.0 5.9 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 14.4 18.3 123.0 68.2 53.7 4.7 8.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.9 9.4 13.5 114.4 63.0 51.5 1.1 4.2 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 13.3 20.6 116.9 64.2 53.2 4.8 7.6 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.9 10.1 16.1 121.3 64.7 54.4 4.2 8.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.6 10.7 14.2 125.0 66.1 53.7 1.3 3.2 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 1.5 10.9 15.0 116.8 66.5 52.6 2.0 2.9 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.4 21.1 18.3 127.0 69.7 54.3 5.3 11.0 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.2 16.0 114.2 61.9 54.0 1.8 6.7 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.5 17.3 123.0 68.7 55.7 2.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.8 14.6 111.9 60.3 52.8 2.1 5.4 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.3 11.6 16.3 122.3 70.7 57.3 1.0 5.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.7 27.3 19.1 121.8 68.4 53.9 7.7 16.2 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.5 7.1 12.9 111.1 61.0 50.8 1.9 3.3 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------