***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 2.8 4.5 15.0 114.3 64.0 56.8 1.1 1.8 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 1.9 2.0 12.6 102.1 59.5 54.8 0.7 1.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 4.8 8.6 14.5 114.3 65.7 57.9 1.2 3.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.4 13.0 90.0 54.5 48.6 4.0 7.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.9 15.2 104.9 59.9 53.4 1.2 4.8 8.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.7 4.7 13.2 93.1 55.3 49.1 1.9 4.4 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 2.4 2.8 12.6 103.8 59.4 54.7 0.9 1.9 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.6 15.5 96.9 55.4 51.4 5.0 13.0 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 4.7 5.7 15.0 108.0 62.0 55.3 1.5 3.4 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.5 17.2 107.3 61.4 55.5 3.1 5.1 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.3 13.9 94.6 54.2 50.7 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.1 5.0 13.3 95.5 53.7 51.3 2.5 4.1 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.6 5.6 15.4 100.7 55.7 53.3 2.2 4.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 8.3 9.8 18.2 110.9 60.7 56.8 2.6 7.3 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.5 3.4 9.7 80.1 54.6 47.5 0.8 3.2 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.7 13.5 94.4 53.3 51.0 1.5 6.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 2.9 2.9 11.6 97.7 58.3 53.4 0.7 2.3 3.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.9 18.6 113.1 64.4 57.8 2.2 5.1 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 3.2 5.3 13.2 105.0 60.9 55.9 0.6 2.3 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.5 4.8 18.1 96.8 55.6 51.0 3.3 4.5 6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.7 15.0 111.3 65.0 56.2 1.4 2.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 2.4 2.7 12.4 98.5 57.2 54.7 0.5 1.8 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 4.0 5.3 14.3 110.3 64.2 57.5 0.9 2.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 8.2 8.4 16.9 113.3 64.4 58.1 1.8 6.7 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.7 5.9 16.4 110.2 63.5 55.0 0.9 3.5 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 3.8 2.9 12.8 94.5 52.6 49.8 1.0 2.1 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.5 6.1 15.8 114.0 63.8 56.4 0.6 3.6 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.2 11.5 86.0 54.3 48.8 2.2 3.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 10.7 11.1 18.7 110.0 62.3 57.0 3.9 8.6 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 2.4 4.4 13.2 107.9 63.0 56.5 0.4 1.2 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------