***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.0 12.4 0.5 57.9 55.5 12.9 13.7 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.0 12.3 0.4 55.8 55.1 12.6 13.8 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.5 12.7 0.4 57.2 54.6 13.1 13.9 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.3 9.9 0.6 59.0 56.2 4.7 5.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.7 10.9 0.3 57.0 53.5 13.4 14.2 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.1 8.8 0.3 56.1 53.2 11.8 12.7 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.5 12.2 0.4 57.6 55.0 12.2 13.4 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.7 9.2 0.3 55.2 53.0 1.1 2.7 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.3 11.6 0.3 56.5 53.6 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.9 10.1 0.3 55.1 52.9 13.0 13.7 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.3 11.0 0.3 55.3 53.3 13.0 13.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 11.7 13.7 10.2 0.3 55.5 53.1 12.2 13.0 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.4 10.0 0.3 55.2 52.4 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.6 11.6 0.4 57.3 54.4 13.2 14.2 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.5 11.5 0.7 60.5 57.6 12.5 13.6 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.8 10.3 0.3 56.1 53.2 13.3 14.5 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.3 12.0 0.4 56.6 55.0 11.6 13.0 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.6 9.7 0.4 57.1 54.1 12.4 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.2 12.5 0.4 56.1 55.0 12.5 14.0 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.0 7.2 0.5 59.1 55.4 7.5 8.6 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.6 12.3 0.3 56.8 53.9 13.4 14.0 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.1 12.2 0.4 57.5 55.0 12.6 13.9 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.4 12.7 0.4 57.0 54.7 13.0 14.3 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.4 11.5 0.4 57.0 54.1 13.2 14.0 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.3 11.1 0.4 57.6 54.8 12.7 13.9 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.8 14.1 9.2 0.3 56.3 53.1 12.4 13.2 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.1 11.8 0.4 57.6 55.0 13.0 13.9 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.4 10.5 0.6 59.3 56.5 12.8 13.7 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.7 8.9 0.5 57.1 54.8 7.8 8.6 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.8 12.4 0.4 56.9 55.1 12.4 13.6 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------