***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.4 13.6 0.0 50.2 49.8 15.5 17.3 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.5 13.5 0.1 53.6 51.4 16.1 17.4 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.0 13.9 0.0 50.6 49.7 16.0 17.0 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.1 9.5 11.2 -0.2 48.1 48.3 7.0 9.7 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 15.4 16.6 12.0 -0.2 46.8 47.7 16.1 17.2 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 13.8 14.5 10.0 -0.2 44.5 48.0 14.2 14.9 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.3 13.4 0.1 52.9 51.3 15.8 17.0 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.2 10.5 -0.2 46.8 47.9 3.2 4.5 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 15.0 16.3 12.4 -0.2 47.2 47.9 15.8 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 15.1 16.9 11.3 -0.2 46.7 47.9 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.3 11.8 -0.3 46.3 47.3 15.7 16.7 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.0 11.5 -0.3 46.2 47.6 14.6 16.4 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 15.5 16.6 10.7 -0.1 45.8 48.6 15.6 16.8 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.1 12.5 0.0 50.3 50.4 16.3 17.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 14.5 16.5 12.0 -0.2 47.9 48.8 14.8 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 15.8 16.8 11.3 -0.2 45.9 47.7 16.0 17.3 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.5 13.3 0.1 54.8 51.7 15.2 16.4 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.4 11.0 0.0 48.9 49.7 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 17.4 17.2 13.7 0.1 53.7 51.4 15.6 17.2 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.2 8.4 0.3 51.9 51.8 10.3 11.1 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 15.4 16.6 13.2 -0.2 48.4 48.5 15.9 17.0 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.3 13.4 0.1 55.7 52.1 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.8 13.9 0.0 52.7 50.8 16.0 17.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.5 17.3 12.4 -0.1 49.8 49.4 15.9 17.4 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.0 12.0 -0.1 48.2 49.4 15.2 17.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 14.6 16.0 10.7 0.0 49.4 50.2 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.1 12.9 0.0 49.7 50.3 15.8 17.1 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 14.4 16.5 11.5 -0.2 47.2 48.0 14.7 16.5 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.1 10.2 0.1 50.0 50.6 10.1 11.1 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.3 13.5 0.0 52.5 51.0 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------