***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.1 14.0 12.4 -0.3 45.8 48.9 12.5 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.0 12.2 -0.3 46.2 48.2 13.1 15.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.0 12.6 -0.4 45.5 47.9 13.8 15.5 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.4 6.4 10.0 -0.6 44.7 47.5 5.0 6.7 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.6 10.7 -0.7 43.1 46.3 13.6 15.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 12.5 13.5 8.5 -1.0 43.5 45.0 12.2 14.4 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.4 12.3 -0.3 46.5 48.8 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 1.6 2.4 9.2 -0.7 45.0 46.5 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.4 11.1 -0.7 43.7 46.3 13.3 15.5 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.0 15.0 9.9 -0.8 44.3 46.3 13.0 15.7 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 16.1 14.1 10.5 -0.8 43.3 45.9 12.9 15.3 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 12.5 13.6 10.2 -0.8 44.9 46.4 12.0 14.1 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.4 14.1 9.4 -0.8 45.1 46.1 13.0 15.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 14.2 15.5 11.1 -0.6 45.7 46.7 13.5 16.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.4 10.8 -0.5 45.9 48.3 13.5 14.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 13.6 14.6 10.0 -0.8 44.5 46.2 13.5 15.4 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.5 12.1 -0.3 47.6 48.4 12.3 13.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.2 9.7 -0.6 46.0 47.1 12.6 15.4 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.9 12.4 -0.4 45.9 48.0 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 9.0 7.2 -0.3 49.1 48.8 7.6 9.4 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.1 14.8 11.9 -0.6 44.2 47.1 13.4 15.5 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.0 12.1 -0.4 47.5 47.8 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.1 12.5 -0.5 45.6 47.7 13.5 15.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.6 15.9 11.0 -0.6 45.0 46.7 13.2 16.0 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.3 10.8 -0.4 45.8 48.3 13.2 14.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.7 13.4 9.3 -0.6 43.8 46.7 12.7 14.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.8 11.8 -0.3 46.5 49.2 13.8 15.1 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 13.3 14.2 10.2 -0.6 44.7 47.2 13.7 14.5 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.8 9.2 8.8 -0.5 46.6 47.6 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.3 12.3 -0.3 45.9 48.4 13.5 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------