***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9.8 14.3 11.8 0.8 63.1 54.6 8.8 12.6 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.1 13.6 11.7 0.6 60.6 53.7 9.6 12.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.7 14.2 12.0 0.6 60.2 53.3 8.9 13.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.0 6.8 9.1 1.0 63.6 55.9 0.3 5.9 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 10.3 14.7 10.2 0.7 60.4 53.9 8.8 13.4 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.4 8.4 0.9 60.4 54.5 7.2 12.8 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 9.9 13.5 11.6 0.6 62.0 54.0 9.4 12.1 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.8 2.9 8.7 0.7 58.2 53.9 -1.3 0.8 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.2 11.1 0.6 60.8 53.5 8.6 13.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.8 14.0 9.6 0.7 58.7 53.4 8.2 13.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.3 14.3 10.5 0.7 59.9 53.6 8.9 13.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 9.2 13.5 9.6 0.7 59.1 54.0 7.3 12.6 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.0 14.0 9.7 0.7 58.1 53.7 8.8 13.4 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 10.6 14.5 11.0 0.5 59.6 52.2 9.9 13.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.3 11.0 1.1 63.6 57.5 9.1 13.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.6 14.8 9.9 0.7 59.1 53.7 8.9 14.1 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 9.2 13.0 11.4 0.6 61.5 54.1 9.2 10.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.6 13.3 9.1 0.8 59.5 53.7 8.6 12.9 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 10.4 13.9 11.8 0.6 60.3 53.3 9.4 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.5 6.8 1.0 59.9 54.9 3.9 7.3 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.4 14.4 11.7 0.6 61.4 53.4 8.8 13.1 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.4 13.6 11.5 0.6 60.6 53.4 9.7 12.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 10.7 14.3 11.9 0.5 60.5 52.7 9.6 13.1 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.3 14.5 10.9 0.6 59.6 52.8 9.5 13.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 9.7 14.5 10.5 0.8 62.1 54.7 8.6 12.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.1 13.9 8.7 0.8 58.3 54.6 8.5 12.3 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 10.1 13.8 11.2 0.7 62.9 54.5 9.0 12.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 10.3 14.8 9.9 1.1 63.5 56.4 8.6 13.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.1 8.4 0.9 59.7 54.1 3.5 7.3 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 10.0 14.2 11.7 0.6 61.2 53.6 9.1 12.3 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------