***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 10.8 12.0 11.9 1.4 59.1 60.2 8.6 10.6 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 10.7 12.7 11.9 1.2 59.6 59.2 9.1 10.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 11.3 13.2 12.3 1.5 61.3 61.6 9.6 11.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 3.2 3.8 9.4 2.1 63.9 64.3 1.1 2.7 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 11.4 13.3 10.6 1.6 62.1 62.0 8.6 11.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 9.7 10.9 8.5 1.5 59.7 61.5 7.6 9.3 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 10.3 11.5 11.6 1.1 57.9 58.1 8.9 9.9 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 1.2 2.7 8.5 1.4 59.8 60.8 -1.3 0.9 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 11.1 13.3 11.7 1.7 62.3 63.0 9.2 10.7 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 11.5 13.3 9.7 1.5 61.0 61.4 8.6 11.0 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 11.1 13.2 11.0 1.6 62.3 62.0 8.3 10.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 10.5 12.0 9.5 1.5 59.8 61.1 8.6 10.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 11.2 12.5 10.1 1.3 57.8 58.9 9.6 10.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 12.2 13.8 11.9 1.8 64.8 63.6 9.3 11.8 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 10.7 13.1 12.0 2.3 62.7 64.8 8.4 10.2 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 11.6 13.3 10.2 1.5 60.7 60.8 9.6 11.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 10.2 11.1 11.4 1.2 57.6 58.0 8.4 9.8 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 11.1 12.8 9.0 1.5 62.9 62.1 9.0 10.6 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 11.0 13.4 12.1 1.3 60.9 60.3 8.7 10.6 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 7.3 8.5 6.4 1.2 62.3 61.0 4.2 7.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 11.4 13.2 12.3 1.5 61.7 61.7 9.3 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 11.4 13.0 11.8 1.3 59.4 59.1 8.9 11.1 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 11.4 14.5 12.4 1.5 62.7 61.7 9.5 11.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 11.7 13.2 11.5 1.7 63.5 63.3 9.9 11.2 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 10.8 12.0 11.0 1.4 59.8 60.3 8.1 10.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 11.1 11.7 8.3 1.2 56.3 58.1 9.7 10.6 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 10.5 11.9 11.3 1.2 58.1 58.8 8.9 10.2 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 11.2 13.6 10.6 2.2 63.5 64.6 8.7 10.7 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 6.8 7.4 8.2 1.5 62.9 62.5 3.3 6.4 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 10.8 12.5 11.9 1.3 59.7 59.7 8.6 10.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------