***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.2 3.5 0.4 58.3 55.0 2.2 3.1 3.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.0 2.8 3.3 0.4 57.2 55.8 1.9 2.8 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.4 3.6 0.4 58.0 55.7 4.1 5.0 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -1.0 0.9 0.5 56.2 55.1 -1.9 -1.3 -0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 2.1 2.1 1.4 0.3 54.5 53.9 1.5 1.9 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 1.3 1.4 -1.0 0.4 53.8 54.5 0.4 1.2 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.2 3.1 3.3 0.4 58.8 55.8 2.1 2.9 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -4.0 -4.5 -1.1 0.2 48.7 51.8 -5.2 -4.5 -3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.9 1.5 0.3 50.8 53.2 2.1 2.9 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 3.1 3.0 -0.3 0.2 48.7 51.9 2.0 3.0 3.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 2.9 3.0 0.7 0.3 51.5 52.8 2.0 2.8 3.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 1.5 1.3 -0.1 0.3 49.3 52.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.5 -0.3 0.2 48.5 51.1 1.3 2.5 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.4 1.4 0.4 55.3 55.1 2.5 3.3 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 2.9 3.1 2.2 0.5 56.1 56.4 2.3 2.7 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.3 0.2 0.3 50.9 52.9 2.5 3.2 3.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 3.1 3.2 3.2 0.4 56.6 56.1 2.3 2.8 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 1.0 1.1 -0.8 0.3 53.5 54.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.1 3.3 0.4 57.0 55.7 1.8 3.0 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -2.8 -1.8 -2.7 0.0 51.0 50.3 -2.5 -1.8 -1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 2.9 3.0 2.8 0.3 55.3 54.0 2.3 2.7 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 2.4 2.5 3.1 0.4 56.6 56.3 1.6 2.2 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.6 3.1 0.4 56.8 55.3 1.8 2.5 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 3.0 3.0 1.3 0.4 55.7 55.5 2.0 2.8 3.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.9 2.4 0.4 56.0 54.1 2.2 2.6 3.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 2.3 2.0 -0.7 0.2 47.3 51.1 1.4 2.1 2.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.2 3.0 0.3 56.7 54.5 2.5 3.2 3.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.5 55.7 55.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 0.2 0.0 -1.6 0.2 51.9 52.4 -1.0 -0.2 0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.5 3.4 0.4 58.1 55.9 2.3 3.3 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------