***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.5 4.6 -0.1 47.1 49.1 3.9 4.6 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.3 5.1 4.4 0.0 48.6 50.8 4.4 5.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.3 7.3 4.7 0.0 47.9 49.7 6.6 7.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.8 1.3 2.0 -0.1 49.5 49.4 0.1 1.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.6 2.2 -0.1 48.1 48.7 2.5 3.7 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.9 0.0 -0.1 47.6 51.6 1.4 3.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.0 4.4 0.0 47.9 50.7 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.8 0.0 -0.3 42.4 49.1 -3.0 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.6 2.5 -0.1 48.0 48.5 4.0 4.6 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.4 0.8 -0.2 45.7 49.5 3.8 4.5 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.8 1.6 -0.1 46.4 49.6 3.2 4.0 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.2 0.8 -0.3 43.3 48.4 1.6 2.5 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.2 0.3 -0.2 45.9 49.3 2.5 3.6 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.4 2.4 -0.1 47.0 49.3 4.4 5.6 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.8 3.1 0.0 48.5 49.7 4.0 4.9 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.9 1.0 -0.1 47.5 49.6 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.2 4.3 0.0 48.1 50.5 4.5 5.2 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.2 0.2 -0.1 46.8 50.7 1.6 2.4 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.1 4.4 0.0 48.1 50.5 4.0 5.3 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -1.3 -0.5 -1.9 -0.2 44.1 50.6 -0.9 0.1 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.2 3.8 3.8 -0.1 47.8 48.5 3.5 4.0 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.2 4.1 0.0 47.2 50.6 3.6 4.4 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.4 4.4 4.2 0.0 47.5 49.8 3.2 4.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.1 2.2 0.0 47.2 50.3 3.4 4.4 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.5 3.3 -0.1 46.7 48.9 3.7 4.8 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.4 2.9 0.1 -0.4 39.1 47.9 2.6 3.7 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.0 4.0 -0.1 47.3 48.9 4.2 5.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.6 2.9 2.1 -0.1 48.5 49.1 1.7 3.0 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.6 1.9 -0.4 -0.1 46.8 51.3 1.3 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.3 4.5 0.0 48.5 50.7 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------