***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.4 3.6 -0.1 49.7 49.2 2.8 4.4 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.1 3.4 -0.1 47.8 49.4 2.6 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.7 3.7 0.0 51.8 50.1 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -1.9 -0.5 0.7 -0.3 46.1 46.9 -1.9 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 1.0 3.0 1.0 -0.3 46.6 46.8 1.8 3.2 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 -0.3 2.0 -1.2 -0.3 44.4 47.7 1.3 2.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.8 3.3 -0.1 47.9 48.8 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -5.8 -4.0 -1.0 -0.2 45.2 48.6 -4.3 -3.6 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.4 4.1 1.4 -0.2 50.1 47.8 2.6 4.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.9 -0.2 -0.2 47.9 48.4 2.4 4.2 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.3 3.2 0.3 -0.3 44.7 47.0 2.3 3.8 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 0.3 1.9 -0.2 -0.2 45.8 48.3 1.4 2.0 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.7 -0.8 -0.4 44.8 47.4 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.9 1.5 0.1 52.3 51.2 2.9 3.8 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.4 3.6 1.8 -0.2 46.3 47.2 3.1 3.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.0 -0.3 -0.4 44.7 46.6 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.5 3.2 -0.2 46.8 48.5 3.0 3.6 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 0.4 1.7 -0.8 0.0 50.3 50.1 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.9 3.4 3.4 0.0 48.6 49.8 2.7 3.5 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -2.9 -1.8 -2.7 -0.2 45.2 48.7 -2.4 -1.0 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.7 2.8 -0.1 50.3 48.6 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.3 3.1 -0.1 47.9 49.2 2.3 3.3 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.2 3.3 0.1 49.9 50.2 2.2 3.2 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.0 1.2 0.1 51.8 51.0 2.0 3.6 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.9 2.2 -0.2 48.4 48.3 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 1.0 2.5 -1.0 -0.4 43.3 47.1 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.5 3.0 -0.2 48.2 48.6 3.4 4.6 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 0.8 2.4 0.8 -0.3 45.4 46.1 1.6 2.5 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -1.5 0.3 -1.3 0.0 49.6 50.4 -0.4 0.4 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.7 3.5 0.0 49.6 49.8 3.0 3.7 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------