***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 2.1 2.4 3.1 0.8 61.1 56.6 -0.1 1.3 2.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 2.0 2.1 2.8 0.8 57.8 57.1 0.0 1.5 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 4.4 5.3 3.2 0.8 60.0 57.1 2.1 3.6 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -1.0 -1.3 0.5 0.9 59.9 58.5 -5.4 -1.8 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 56.1 55.7 -0.4 0.5 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 0.4 0.3 -1.5 0.7 53.8 56.1 -0.9 -0.1 0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.7 2.8 0.8 59.7 57.2 -0.1 1.8 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -7.7 -5.8 -1.6 0.5 49.5 53.9 -7.9 -5.8 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 2.4 2.0 1.1 0.6 54.9 55.3 0.6 1.9 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 0.7 1.7 -0.8 0.5 50.6 53.9 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 0.1 1.4 0.4 0.6 53.0 54.8 0.0 1.0 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 0.6 0.2 -0.5 0.6 50.9 54.5 -1.1 0.0 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 1.6 1.6 -0.7 0.5 52.3 53.5 0.0 1.2 2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.4 1.0 0.8 55.1 55.9 1.2 2.3 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 2.6 3.0 1.9 1.0 64.1 60.9 0.3 2.1 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.3 -0.1 0.6 53.7 55.0 0.7 2.2 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.5 2.8 2.6 0.8 58.3 57.1 0.3 2.1 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -1.3 -0.1 -1.3 0.5 52.4 53.9 -1.0 -0.2 0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 2.2 2.6 2.8 0.8 57.3 57.2 0.0 1.5 3.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -4.0 -3.1 -3.2 0.1 48.8 51.2 -4.0 -2.9 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 0.2 2.2 2.5 0.7 59.0 56.0 0.2 1.8 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 1.5 2.1 2.6 0.8 58.7 56.9 0.3 0.9 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 1.4 2.1 2.6 0.8 57.2 57.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 0.3 2.0 0.9 0.7 56.2 56.0 0.5 1.1 2.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 1.7 2.2 2.1 0.8 60.0 56.6 0.1 1.2 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 1.6 1.3 -1.0 0.6 51.8 54.7 0.4 1.3 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.4 2.7 0.8 60.3 56.4 0.0 1.9 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 60.8 59.0 -1.2 0.1 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -3.3 -1.5 -2.2 0.3 49.5 52.4 -3.5 -1.4 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 2.5 2.9 3.0 0.9 59.7 57.3 0.0 2.0 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------