***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 12.3 11.6 27.7 62.6 23.8 28.3 14.7 23.3 36.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 14.6 16.0 27.4 65.4 32.4 30.3 16.1 29.9 37.3 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 18.5 16.0 29.1 64.6 28.3 29.5 20.3 34.8 53.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 26.3 30.4 33.9 66.6 30.4 30.2 30.4 38.0 51.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 22.9 33.4 37.4 74.6 36.5 35.0 31.2 36.7 45.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 25.4 30.7 50.0 88.8 47.6 43.6 25.8 32.7 46.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 10.8 14.3 26.9 64.6 27.5 28.7 16.5 27.7 37.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 45.9 54.8 42.3 81.3 38.2 37.7 50.0 62.1 72.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 22.1 27.4 37.2 74.1 36.8 35.2 23.2 32.3 41.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 29.8 28.8 42.0 78.2 36.4 36.3 28.5 45.3 57.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 25.6 28.6 35.7 76.4 36.3 35.7 26.1 37.4 51.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 22.2 28.6 36.4 80.2 38.6 36.9 26.0 34.2 52.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 29.8 41.0 46.1 91.8 47.8 44.8 31.6 41.6 48.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 31.1 28.4 37.2 65.8 26.5 27.8 35.3 50.0 58.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 19.6 24.6 36.6 76.0 35.3 36.6 23.4 33.3 47.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 25.6 32.0 41.7 86.5 43.6 41.3 27.6 34.0 38.9 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 11.5 17.6 26.7 66.4 31.1 30.9 18.6 25.0 36.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 24.2 29.4 46.9 79.3 31.5 36.1 29.9 38.8 46.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 17.2 19.2 28.5 66.1 32.7 30.8 19.3 32.2 44.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 25.3 27.6 52.9 80.8 32.8 36.4 27.7 36.0 48.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 18.6 26.6 31.3 67.4 32.1 31.4 26.9 31.0 44.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 17.3 20.2 28.3 67.5 31.8 32.1 20.3 26.4 33.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 21.5 21.4 31.3 67.8 34.2 31.7 21.1 32.6 46.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 31.9 32.0 39.0 72.0 30.9 32.2 33.2 47.8 58.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 19.1 24.5 34.3 67.1 29.3 30.6 25.4 33.8 37.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 38.0 28.6 42.4 85.8 42.1 41.6 24.9 34.8 40.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 16.2 17.2 31.2 63.7 25.5 28.3 22.5 29.8 37.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 18.8 22.4 37.0 75.0 36.0 35.4 22.0 31.7 39.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 37.4 39.7 49.5 80.1 32.6 36.1 39.7 53.4 85.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 14.3 10.5 27.2 63.6 28.7 28.8 13.8 29.8 39.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------