***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 0.9 1.8 9.5 81.1 50.4 44.9 0.6 1.8 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.6 5.8 9.4 88.4 56.5 47.6 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.2 9.5 83.9 51.8 45.8 2.5 4.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.8 9.7 10.8 81.3 52.7 44.6 6.9 9.1 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.5 11.0 85.6 54.2 47.0 2.4 4.9 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.8 9.9 16.1 109.0 65.2 55.1 3.9 7.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.6 4.3 9.4 88.7 52.6 47.9 0.5 3.4 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.1 11.8 13.4 105.4 61.7 53.7 4.9 9.5 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.0 11.3 89.7 56.2 48.5 1.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.0 13.4 100.0 59.5 51.4 2.4 5.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.6 4.8 10.9 94.3 57.2 49.5 1.5 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.2 8.1 11.4 105.0 63.2 54.5 2.4 5.8 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 6.7 8.3 13.5 108.3 62.2 56.2 3.0 5.1 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.8 13.1 91.0 56.2 49.2 2.2 4.2 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.1 7.6 10.6 87.7 53.0 45.5 3.4 7.4 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.6 7.4 11.9 99.0 60.3 51.7 2.3 5.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.5 3.5 8.9 90.4 53.5 48.5 0.7 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.0 15.4 103.1 60.6 52.8 1.4 3.2 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.5 4.9 9.3 85.4 56.4 47.1 0.7 3.0 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.8 17.3 106.3 60.2 53.5 3.0 7.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.5 6.7 9.9 86.2 54.2 47.1 0.8 5.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.0 9.2 90.4 59.0 49.3 1.3 2.9 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.2 5.9 9.7 82.0 55.2 46.5 2.1 5.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.9 12.8 94.2 59.1 49.5 2.1 6.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 5.0 11.0 80.6 46.7 44.9 3.1 5.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 8.4 10.8 12.7 106.2 63.2 57.9 1.9 7.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.3 2.5 10.7 80.7 46.5 45.1 1.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.1 11.1 88.6 55.8 46.4 2.9 6.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.0 16.6 106.7 60.6 53.3 5.9 8.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.3 3.3 9.4 85.9 54.0 46.9 1.0 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------