***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.0 7.0 8.6 77.8 51.2 47.2 2.7 6.8 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.7 4.5 9.0 80.0 54.0 47.5 2.1 4.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.8 5.5 9.4 81.8 52.6 48.1 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.9 11.7 92.7 57.3 47.4 4.5 7.0 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.1 11.5 92.5 53.6 47.5 2.9 7.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.1 13.9 15.1 113.5 63.3 54.5 6.7 9.4 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.0 8.8 76.9 52.5 46.3 1.6 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.6 18.7 12.9 103.4 59.1 48.9 7.5 16.1 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.3 11.0 88.8 52.7 46.8 1.2 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.2 12.6 95.7 55.1 47.5 3.5 8.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.1 12.5 11.3 99.8 58.5 47.9 3.8 8.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.9 13.2 11.7 109.7 60.6 50.5 3.9 9.4 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.5 14.0 12.9 109.0 60.3 52.0 6.6 9.9 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.7 11.0 12.8 86.9 50.6 47.0 7.3 11.0 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.4 11.2 12.5 105.3 64.2 51.2 1.2 4.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.7 10.3 12.6 107.9 60.4 51.2 2.0 9.5 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.8 4.9 8.8 79.7 50.8 46.5 2.1 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.4 9.4 14.5 98.5 56.3 49.3 6.6 8.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 8.3 7.0 9.4 83.2 54.9 48.3 1.9 6.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.1 10.0 15.9 96.6 56.0 47.7 6.2 8.2 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.7 9.7 84.8 53.3 47.3 3.0 7.1 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.9 5.4 9.3 81.3 51.6 47.0 3.3 5.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 10.4 9.9 10.3 87.2 55.3 49.1 3.3 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.5 12.8 93.3 54.8 49.2 5.0 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.2 7.8 10.6 84.6 51.6 48.3 3.7 7.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.9 12.8 105.5 56.0 51.6 3.3 5.8 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.3 5.4 9.7 78.7 50.3 47.0 2.3 5.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.1 9.5 12.7 104.1 63.4 49.9 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.8 13.2 15.0 96.3 54.7 48.6 9.5 12.2 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.0 8.9 78.0 53.0 47.4 1.6 4.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------