***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 1.3 2.6 4.8 46.8 36.8 30.2 2.1 3.7 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 0.9 1.5 4.9 49.8 37.0 30.8 1.4 3.2 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.5 3.6 5.4 49.7 39.4 32.0 2.4 5.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 4.6 8.0 7.0 55.7 47.3 33.2 4.7 8.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.5 9.1 7.3 57.8 47.7 36.1 4.4 9.9 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.8 6.4 10.3 64.8 45.2 36.3 2.4 6.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 1.2 2.7 4.5 47.1 36.1 28.9 2.3 4.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 8.4 12.9 8.6 61.8 43.9 35.2 9.3 16.8 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.1 6.6 7.1 54.7 44.8 34.3 4.6 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 6.6 10.8 8.3 58.9 44.0 34.7 6.5 14.2 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 5.7 12.3 7.3 59.8 49.4 35.2 3.8 12.4 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 2.8 5.6 7.6 61.3 43.8 34.9 5.0 7.5 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 2.5 7.4 8.6 61.4 46.4 34.7 4.0 8.1 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 5.1 7.6 6.7 50.5 37.7 30.0 4.8 10.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 1.1 7.7 8.6 68.3 59.7 37.0 0.8 3.3 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.9 6.4 8.2 62.8 48.5 35.4 4.4 6.4 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 2.0 3.1 4.9 50.4 41.1 31.4 2.0 5.9 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.3 7.4 9.3 62.0 43.7 35.4 4.7 8.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 1.6 1.3 5.2 51.6 39.3 32.0 1.1 4.2 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.9 5.5 10.6 63.0 41.6 35.9 4.8 7.6 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.6 6.3 6.0 50.6 41.5 32.5 4.2 8.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 1.2 1.9 5.6 55.3 42.4 32.9 1.3 3.2 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 1.3 2.4 5.8 53.1 41.7 33.1 2.0 2.9 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 5.5 7.8 7.6 56.2 41.9 33.9 5.3 11.0 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.6 3.1 6.2 50.5 39.7 32.6 1.8 6.7 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.3 5.5 8.9 64.8 48.6 36.5 2.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 2.1 2.5 5.2 46.5 35.4 29.7 2.1 5.4 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 1.9 6.4 8.1 62.7 54.6 34.4 1.0 5.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 7.9 10.8 9.7 63.0 42.4 35.5 7.7 16.2 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 1.0 2.3 4.7 48.1 36.6 30.0 1.9 3.3 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------