***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 0.6 1.0 4.8 43.1 32.8 31.8 1.1 1.8 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 0.4 0.6 4.2 40.7 32.2 29.7 0.7 1.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 1.2 0.5 4.8 42.3 27.9 28.4 1.2 3.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 2.9 3.0 4.4 35.4 23.5 24.8 4.0 7.4 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.2 2.3 7.6 62.3 39.5 38.8 1.2 4.8 8.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.0 3.5 8.4 68.8 42.1 39.6 1.9 4.4 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 0.7 0.9 4.1 41.6 32.6 30.4 0.9 1.9 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.5 5.0 7.5 57.1 33.2 32.6 5.0 13.0 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.4 7.8 63.5 38.6 38.2 1.5 3.4 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.1 3.8 7.8 59.4 35.5 34.0 3.1 5.1 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 1.8 2.5 6.1 53.0 33.0 32.6 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 1.3 1.8 5.7 50.1 29.7 29.7 2.5 4.1 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 6.1 4.5 11.1 93.6 50.3 50.2 2.2 4.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 1.8 0.3 4.6 32.9 17.9 20.3 2.6 7.3 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.1 0.7 5.0 42.5 31.9 30.6 0.8 3.2 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.6 4.5 9.0 78.8 46.9 45.2 1.5 6.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 0.9 0.7 4.1 42.6 33.6 32.6 0.7 2.3 3.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.0 1.5 7.7 53.2 27.0 29.0 2.2 5.1 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 0.7 0.6 4.5 41.9 31.4 29.7 0.6 2.3 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 1.4 3.2 9.1 57.4 31.7 30.6 3.3 4.5 6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.4 1.3 5.8 49.0 30.7 31.6 1.4 2.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 0.7 0.4 4.3 41.7 32.2 31.1 0.5 1.8 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 1.0 0.6 5.5 47.5 31.1 31.4 0.9 2.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 2.4 0.8 5.8 43.6 22.1 25.4 1.8 6.7 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.4 1.0 6.5 51.2 33.5 34.0 0.9 3.5 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.0 1.2 8.0 69.2 34.3 39.1 1.0 2.1 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 1.3 0.6 5.6 46.0 34.0 32.2 0.6 3.6 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 1.6 1.9 5.1 43.6 30.7 29.3 2.2 3.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 3.6 2.7 8.2 53.8 26.1 28.5 3.9 8.6 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 0.4 0.4 4.2 39.3 29.9 28.0 0.4 1.2 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------