***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 13.9 14.1 12.5 0.3 59.2 55.8 12.9 13.7 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.5 12.6 0.4 61.3 57.3 12.6 13.8 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.2 12.5 0.1 54.8 53.1 13.1 13.9 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.8 9.9 -0.4 49.1 46.7 4.7 5.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.2 10.3 -0.5 48.1 45.9 13.4 14.2 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.1 11.8 7.6 -1.3 34.5 37.5 11.8 12.7 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 13.7 14.3 12.6 0.5 62.3 58.5 12.2 13.4 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.1 1.2 8.1 -1.3 35.3 37.7 1.1 2.7 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 14.3 13.8 11.0 -0.4 47.5 47.0 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.2 9.2 -1.0 39.6 40.9 13.0 13.7 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.3 13.5 9.6 -0.9 42.4 41.7 13.0 13.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.5 9.0 -1.2 37.1 38.9 12.2 13.0 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.4 8.6 -1.2 37.2 39.5 12.9 14.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.2 11.1 -0.4 47.2 47.1 13.2 14.2 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 13.9 13.7 10.6 -0.2 52.7 48.9 12.5 13.6 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.9 13.7 9.2 -1.0 39.7 40.7 13.3 14.5 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 13.3 13.6 12.5 0.5 60.8 58.4 11.6 13.0 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.1 8.5 -1.1 39.5 39.6 12.4 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.3 12.7 0.3 59.1 55.8 12.5 14.0 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.0 7.4 5.8 -1.5 31.7 34.8 7.5 8.6 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 14.3 14.1 11.9 -0.1 52.0 50.5 13.4 14.0 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.2 12.6 0.4 58.4 56.5 12.6 13.9 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.4 12.5 0.1 55.8 53.4 13.0 14.3 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.3 13.9 10.7 -0.6 46.1 45.6 13.2 14.0 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.3 11.0 0.2 56.4 54.0 12.7 13.9 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.7 12.5 8.2 -1.2 35.8 38.8 12.4 13.2 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.2 11.9 0.3 58.4 56.3 13.0 13.9 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.6 10.0 -0.6 46.5 44.5 12.8 13.7 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.0 7.5 -1.2 39.2 38.9 7.8 8.6 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 13.9 14.3 12.7 0.4 61.0 56.7 12.4 13.6 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------