***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 15.3 17.3 14.3 -0.2 49.0 49.4 15.5 17.3 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.5 14.3 0.0 54.3 51.8 16.1 17.4 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.0 14.3 -0.2 49.8 49.7 16.0 17.0 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.3 12.4 -0.6 46.7 46.1 7.0 9.7 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.8 16.8 12.6 -0.6 48.3 46.8 16.1 17.2 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 15.6 14.8 10.8 -0.7 49.2 46.9 14.2 14.9 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.4 14.3 0.1 55.7 52.1 15.8 17.0 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.2 10.9 -0.7 46.5 46.2 3.2 4.5 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.5 13.0 -0.5 49.0 47.6 15.8 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.0 11.8 -0.6 47.8 47.0 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.6 12.1 -0.7 48.3 46.5 15.7 16.7 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.1 11.8 -0.7 46.8 46.5 14.6 16.4 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.3 16.6 11.4 -0.6 46.2 47.2 15.6 16.8 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.2 13.0 -0.3 52.2 49.8 16.3 17.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.3 12.6 -0.6 44.1 45.2 14.8 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.1 11.9 -0.7 47.5 46.5 16.0 17.3 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.5 14.1 0.1 55.0 52.2 15.2 16.4 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.2 11.1 -0.6 47.6 47.7 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.2 14.4 0.0 52.7 51.4 15.6 17.2 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.3 11.0 8.5 -0.9 45.6 45.3 10.3 11.1 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.8 13.7 -0.4 49.1 48.2 15.9 17.0 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.2 14.1 0.0 53.2 51.5 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.7 14.3 -0.1 51.0 50.8 16.0 17.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.4 12.9 -0.4 50.3 49.2 15.9 17.4 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 17.6 16.9 12.8 -0.3 47.9 48.1 15.2 17.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 16.5 15.7 11.1 -0.6 44.0 47.2 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.1 13.6 -0.2 48.7 49.6 15.8 17.1 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.5 12.5 -0.7 46.0 45.5 14.7 16.5 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.9 11.0 10.0 -0.6 47.0 47.6 10.1 11.1 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 17.5 17.3 14.4 0.0 52.6 51.2 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------