***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.0 13.4 0.2 48.3 51.2 12.5 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.0 13.4 0.1 47.2 51.0 13.1 15.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.0 13.4 0.0 45.7 49.5 13.8 15.5 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.5 5.9 11.3 -0.2 39.8 47.6 5.0 6.7 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.1 14.4 11.6 -0.3 42.0 47.7 13.6 15.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.1 13.3 9.6 -0.4 42.8 47.6 12.2 14.4 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.6 13.4 0.3 49.3 52.0 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 1.6 2.2 9.9 -0.7 39.1 44.5 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.1 14.2 12.1 -0.3 42.4 47.8 13.3 15.5 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.3 13.4 10.8 -0.6 40.2 45.6 13.0 15.7 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.0 13.9 11.2 -0.4 41.9 46.9 12.9 15.3 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 15.1 12.4 10.8 -0.6 40.0 45.7 12.0 14.1 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 13.5 13.9 10.3 -0.5 43.0 47.1 13.0 15.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.6 15.2 12.1 -0.4 42.0 46.2 13.5 16.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.0 13.6 11.4 -0.3 38.4 46.5 13.5 14.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 13.6 14.4 10.8 -0.4 41.7 47.0 13.5 15.4 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.1 13.5 13.1 0.1 47.9 50.9 12.3 13.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 13.2 10.1 -0.8 39.0 44.2 12.6 15.4 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.4 14.9 13.4 0.0 45.5 50.1 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.7 7.9 7.3 -1.2 37.1 41.2 7.6 9.4 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.0 14.8 12.9 -0.1 44.3 48.8 13.4 15.5 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.4 14.8 13.2 -0.1 44.6 49.0 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.1 13.3 -0.1 43.6 48.7 13.5 15.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.6 15.1 11.9 -0.5 41.1 46.1 13.2 16.0 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.3 11.9 0.1 45.9 50.5 13.2 14.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 15.2 13.3 9.9 -0.4 40.2 47.4 12.7 14.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.0 12.7 0.3 48.2 52.0 13.8 15.1 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.1 11.3 -0.4 38.0 46.5 13.7 14.5 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 8.1 9.1 -0.8 39.2 44.3 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 15.4 14.6 13.5 0.2 47.9 51.1 13.5 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------