***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 13.3 14.7 12.1 1.0 65.9 59.1 8.8 12.6 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.9 14.5 12.2 1.0 66.7 59.7 9.6 12.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.8 12.1 0.8 63.1 56.7 8.9 13.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 1.9 6.2 9.6 0.4 58.3 52.4 0.3 5.9 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.3 9.9 0.4 58.4 52.2 8.8 13.4 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 8.1 11.3 7.0 -0.7 44.1 45.4 7.2 12.8 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 12.8 14.6 12.2 1.1 67.3 61.7 9.4 12.1 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -2.1 0.7 7.9 -0.3 48.9 47.0 -1.3 0.8 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.5 10.6 0.5 58.6 53.0 8.6 13.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.6 13.6 9.0 0.0 53.1 49.5 8.2 13.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 9.7 13.6 9.3 0.1 53.6 49.9 8.9 13.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 8.6 12.6 8.8 -0.2 50.1 47.9 7.3 12.6 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 9.5 13.4 8.1 -0.3 49.5 47.3 8.8 13.4 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.2 10.8 0.5 58.6 54.0 9.9 13.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 10.1 13.7 9.8 0.3 58.9 52.0 9.1 13.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 10.2 14.1 8.7 -0.2 50.9 48.3 8.9 14.1 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 11.5 13.5 12.1 1.1 66.2 61.4 9.2 10.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.0 8.4 -0.1 52.9 49.2 8.6 12.9 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.4 14.2 12.2 0.9 65.3 58.2 9.4 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.5 6.9 5.5 -0.7 46.7 45.1 3.9 7.3 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.5 11.4 0.7 61.6 55.1 8.8 13.1 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.9 14.6 12.2 1.0 65.1 59.1 9.7 12.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.9 12.1 0.8 63.0 56.4 9.6 13.1 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.0 10.5 0.4 57.3 53.1 9.5 13.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.6 14.6 10.4 0.8 64.2 57.5 8.6 12.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 8.9 12.0 7.8 -0.4 47.1 47.1 8.5 12.3 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.4 14.3 11.4 1.0 65.5 60.0 9.0 12.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 9.9 13.9 9.4 0.1 55.1 50.1 8.6 13.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.3 7.3 -0.2 50.6 48.4 3.5 7.3 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.0 15.1 12.2 0.9 67.2 59.2 9.1 12.3 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------