***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 97 3 100 10.7 10.7 10.3 0.2 52.9 53.3 8.6 10.6 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 97 3 100 10.5 11.5 10.7 0.6 56.3 55.6 9.1 10.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 11.2 11.1 10.2 -0.1 50.7 50.6 9.6 11.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 3.4 2.5 6.2 -1.2 45.2 43.0 1.1 2.7 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 11.8 10.4 6.9 -1.6 42.1 40.0 8.6 11.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 6.3 5.9 3.1 -3.7 21.3 23.0 7.6 9.3 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 97 3 100 10.1 11.4 10.6 0.7 57.7 56.2 8.9 9.9 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 -2.1 -2.7 3.9 -3.4 22.1 24.8 -1.3 0.9 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.5 9.9 8.2 -1.4 43.1 41.1 9.2 10.7 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 8.1 8.1 5.4 -2.8 28.6 29.9 8.6 11.0 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 8.1 7.9 5.8 -2.7 31.2 32.3 8.3 10.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 7.4 7.7 4.6 -3.3 23.4 26.0 8.6 10.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 8.4 8.3 4.7 -3.3 24.2 24.5 9.6 10.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.6 10.4 8.3 -1.4 39.8 39.4 9.3 11.8 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 95 5 100 10.4 9.5 8.6 -0.2 48.2 49.0 8.4 10.2 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 8.6 8.7 5.3 -2.9 28.6 29.9 9.6 11.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 95 5 100 10.1 11.5 10.7 0.9 58.8 57.4 8.4 9.8 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 7.1 7.6 4.5 -3.1 25.5 26.8 9.0 10.6 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 97 3 100 10.8 10.8 10.6 0.4 53.5 54.1 8.7 10.6 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 3.1 3.0 2.1 -3.4 18.9 22.6 4.2 7.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 11.3 10.6 9.5 -0.6 47.9 46.9 9.3 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 95 5 100 11.3 11.3 10.8 0.7 54.4 55.9 8.9 11.1 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 95 5 100 11.2 11.0 10.3 0.0 49.8 50.9 9.5 11.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 10.8 7.5 -1.8 38.7 37.0 9.9 11.2 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 99 1 100 10.5 10.7 8.7 0.0 51.0 51.5 8.1 10.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 7.8 7.6 3.8 -3.4 20.6 21.8 9.7 10.6 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 98 2 100 10.3 10.5 9.7 0.3 53.2 53.5 8.9 10.2 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 11.6 9.5 6.6 -1.5 40.9 41.0 8.7 10.7 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 2.7 2.8 3.6 -3.2 25.7 25.9 3.3 6.4 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 97 3 100 10.5 10.8 10.6 0.5 54.9 54.7 8.6 10.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------