***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.1 2.3 -0.3 47.1 46.9 2.2 3.1 3.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 3.0 2.7 2.4 -0.2 48.1 48.4 1.9 2.8 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.3 4.9 2.2 -0.2 46.9 47.4 4.1 5.0 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -1.5 -0.4 -0.5 41.5 42.2 -1.9 -1.3 -0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 2.1 1.7 -0.2 -0.5 40.6 42.7 1.5 1.9 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 0.1 0.4 -2.4 -1.0 32.5 34.8 0.4 1.2 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 3.1 2.9 2.4 -0.2 49.9 48.7 2.1 2.9 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -5.8 -5.5 -2.3 -1.2 27.7 31.9 -5.2 -4.5 -3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 3.0 2.7 0.3 -0.6 42.4 41.8 2.1 2.9 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.0 -1.6 -1.1 32.1 34.5 2.0 3.0 3.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 2.9 2.1 -0.7 -0.7 36.1 38.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 -0.1 0.6 -1.4 -1.1 31.1 32.9 0.8 1.3 2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 1.3 1.3 -1.7 -1.1 32.3 33.3 1.3 2.5 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 3.5 2.9 0.4 -0.6 40.0 41.1 2.5 3.3 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.4 0.5 -0.3 44.0 43.0 2.3 2.7 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.1 2.7 -1.2 -0.9 34.1 35.9 2.5 3.2 3.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 3.1 2.7 2.3 -0.2 48.2 48.0 2.3 2.8 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 0.0 -0.2 -2.5 -1.3 29.3 32.2 0.0 0.8 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.0 2.3 -0.2 48.5 48.3 1.8 3.0 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -1.6 -2.5 -4.1 -1.2 31.3 34.4 -2.5 -1.8 -1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 2.9 2.6 1.5 -0.4 46.3 45.4 2.3 2.7 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 2.4 2.1 2.3 -0.2 46.6 47.3 1.6 2.2 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 2.7 2.5 2.0 -0.2 49.2 48.3 1.8 2.5 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 2.9 2.2 0.0 -0.7 38.7 40.7 2.0 2.8 3.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 2.8 2.5 0.9 -0.3 47.8 46.8 2.2 2.6 3.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 1.0 0.9 -1.7 -1.2 28.7 32.4 1.4 2.1 2.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 3.4 3.2 1.7 -0.3 47.2 46.9 2.5 3.2 3.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 1.4 0.8 -0.2 -0.6 39.3 40.1 0.6 1.2 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 0.2 -1.0 -2.8 -1.0 33.7 36.4 -1.0 -0.2 0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 3.4 3.3 2.4 -0.2 48.0 48.4 2.3 3.3 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------