***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.7 4.6 0.1 55.0 52.3 3.9 4.6 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.1 5.1 4.5 0.1 53.7 52.2 4.4 5.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.5 4.3 0.1 53.4 52.7 6.6 7.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.0 1.3 1.9 -0.2 50.5 48.6 0.1 1.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.7 1.9 -0.2 50.7 49.0 2.5 3.7 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.3 0.2 -0.4 44.9 49.0 1.4 3.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.3 4.5 0.1 55.3 51.8 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.9 -2.6 0.4 -0.3 45.5 49.1 -3.0 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.7 2.5 -0.2 52.7 50.1 4.0 4.6 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.5 1.0 -0.3 48.4 49.5 3.8 4.5 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.9 1.5 -0.3 47.8 48.2 3.2 4.0 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.3 1.1 -0.4 46.0 48.0 1.6 2.5 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.2 0.6 -0.5 45.8 46.8 2.5 3.6 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.6 2.7 -0.1 50.9 51.4 4.4 5.6 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.3 4.8 2.5 -0.2 48.2 48.7 4.0 4.9 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.6 4.8 1.1 -0.4 46.1 47.4 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.4 4.4 0.1 56.1 51.2 4.5 5.2 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 2.6 2.2 0.4 -0.2 48.0 50.5 1.6 2.4 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.4 4.4 0.1 52.1 52.3 4.0 5.3 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -1.2 -0.5 -1.3 -0.3 44.1 50.2 -0.9 0.1 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.4 3.6 -0.1 52.9 51.2 3.5 4.0 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.5 4.3 -0.1 53.7 50.9 3.6 4.4 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.6 4.0 0.0 51.2 52.1 3.2 4.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.6 2.4 -0.1 51.3 51.1 3.4 4.4 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.2 2.9 0.0 55.1 50.9 3.7 4.8 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.2 0.8 -0.5 45.1 46.6 2.6 3.7 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.0 3.8 0.1 55.2 51.8 4.2 5.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.5 2.9 2.1 -0.3 47.5 47.8 1.7 3.0 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 2.4 1.9 -0.1 -0.1 46.6 50.9 1.3 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.5 4.6 0.2 53.8 52.6 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------