***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.6 3.3 -0.2 45.2 47.6 2.8 4.4 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.1 3.2 -0.3 49.3 46.6 2.6 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.3 3.0 -0.3 44.8 47.0 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -2.0 -0.5 0.9 0.0 45.9 49.9 -1.9 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.2 3.0 0.9 0.0 44.0 49.5 1.8 3.2 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 -0.2 1.9 -0.7 0.0 41.9 51.2 1.3 2.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.8 3.3 -0.2 48.8 47.0 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -5.8 -4.2 -0.9 -0.6 36.1 43.8 -4.3 -3.6 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.5 3.7 1.4 -0.2 41.9 47.5 2.6 4.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.4 2.7 -0.4 -0.6 36.9 43.2 2.4 4.2 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.5 3.2 0.5 -0.1 44.8 49.0 2.3 3.8 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 0.4 1.8 0.1 -0.3 41.6 48.0 1.4 2.0 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 3.9 2.4 -0.2 -0.1 41.7 49.8 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.7 1.5 -0.2 46.8 46.7 2.9 3.8 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.3 3.6 1.4 -0.1 45.4 48.7 3.1 3.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.0 0.3 0.0 44.7 50.7 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.5 3.5 3.1 -0.3 47.2 45.4 3.0 3.6 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 0.3 0.7 -1.2 -0.8 33.8 41.5 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.2 3.5 3.1 -0.3 50.0 46.5 2.7 3.5 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -2.8 -2.5 -3.0 -1.1 30.3 40.2 -2.4 -1.0 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.3 3.4 2.4 -0.2 44.0 47.2 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.0 3.4 3.0 -0.3 50.0 45.4 2.3 3.3 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.7 3.2 2.8 -0.3 49.8 47.0 2.2 3.2 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.1 1.1 -0.4 42.6 45.4 2.0 3.6 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.0 3.6 1.7 -0.2 43.2 47.6 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.6 2.4 -0.1 -0.3 40.1 48.4 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.3 2.6 -0.2 44.1 47.6 3.4 4.6 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 0.8 2.4 1.1 0.0 45.6 49.8 1.6 2.5 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 -1.6 -0.3 -1.7 -0.7 34.7 42.8 -0.4 0.4 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.7 3.6 3.3 -0.3 47.2 47.2 3.0 3.7 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------