***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 1.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.8 39.9 40.1 -0.2 0.7 1.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 0.5 0.0 0.2 -0.5 42.5 43.0 -0.3 0.3 1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 2.9 1.8 0.0 -0.6 39.6 41.6 1.2 2.4 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -6.2 -5.2 -3.5 -1.4 31.6 31.7 -5.0 -3.9 -1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 -1.8 -2.0 -2.6 -1.3 29.1 31.6 -1.7 -0.9 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 -3.5 -3.4 -5.7 -2.5 22.8 22.8 -2.4 -1.1 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 0.7 0.1 0.1 -0.6 42.0 43.0 -0.3 0.5 1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 -8.8 -9.2 -5.6 -2.8 16.5 19.9 -8.1 -6.4 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 -1.0 -1.2 -2.1 -1.4 26.6 29.4 -0.3 0.3 1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 -1.6 -1.8 -4.5 -2.2 20.1 23.8 -0.6 0.5 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 -1.7 -1.9 -3.6 -1.9 22.9 25.9 -0.7 0.3 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 -3.3 -3.7 -5.0 -2.9 15.4 17.8 -2.0 -1.2 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 -2.9 -3.1 -4.9 -2.7 18.1 20.9 -0.5 -0.1 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 -0.8 -0.9 -2.5 -1.8 26.6 28.3 0.0 1.3 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -0.2 -0.3 -1.6 -0.7 32.5 35.0 -0.3 1.1 1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 -1.2 -0.9 -4.3 -2.3 22.1 23.1 -0.1 0.3 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0.5 43.0 44.1 -0.1 0.5 1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 -3.7 -3.1 -5.8 -2.7 22.2 23.1 -2.1 -1.1 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 0.8 0.2 0.2 -0.5 43.6 43.7 -0.4 0.6 1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 -5.7 -5.4 -6.8 -1.9 31.7 31.8 -5.4 -3.1 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.8 35.7 37.7 -0.9 0.0 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.4 41.9 43.5 -0.4 0.0 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 0.6 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 45.5 44.9 -0.8 0.4 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 -1.3 -0.9 -2.7 -1.7 29.8 30.6 -0.6 0.2 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 0.7 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6 36.8 38.4 -0.6 0.3 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 -2.2 -2.0 -5.3 -2.9 18.4 19.4 -1.4 0.1 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 1.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 38.6 39.6 -0.4 0.7 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 -2.5 -1.8 -3.0 -1.5 30.7 31.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 -4.7 -3.8 -5.5 -1.8 29.2 30.1 -3.7 -2.6 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 0.7 0.1 0.2 -0.6 42.5 43.0 -0.1 0.5 1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------