***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 27.0 25.3 55.4 108.5 59.7 58.0 14.8 22.8 32.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 31.7 31.9 50.3 112.1 61.9 60.0 16.0 28.6 35.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 38.9 38.8 54.3 108.8 60.5 58.3 20.2 32.4 42.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 41.8 40.6 62.1 105.0 58.7 54.2 27.4 38.0 49.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 38.7 38.1 59.9 106.4 60.5 54.7 29.3 35.5 40.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 36.7 38.4 59.4 101.0 55.6 52.0 23.8 33.0 46.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 27.6 31.9 49.2 111.2 62.3 59.8 16.5 25.2 32.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 70.0 67.3 56.8 95.5 52.1 48.0 51.2 65.2 73.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 34.9 36.7 60.7 107.5 62.0 55.3 20.9 29.1 38.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 44.7 45.7 61.3 100.8 56.0 51.0 27.8 38.8 55.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 27.8 41.1 55.5 101.2 56.1 51.2 24.6 35.8 52.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 42.6 40.1 52.0 97.9 53.8 49.4 23.9 36.3 52.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 29.0 43.5 59.0 100.2 54.5 51.2 34.0 41.7 50.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 52.1 54.7 69.3 111.6 65.1 59.7 35.4 49.0 55.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 38.4 36.1 55.1 99.5 58.1 50.5 20.5 33.5 47.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 26.4 37.8 57.5 103.1 58.0 52.8 28.1 34.0 40.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 29.0 29.0 49.7 113.5 64.4 60.2 18.5 25.0 30.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 39.7 39.0 63.3 100.6 56.4 51.9 29.0 35.6 46.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 32.7 32.2 51.4 111.4 61.9 59.5 19.4 27.4 40.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 40.5 33.7 65.7 92.8 48.1 47.1 27.4 34.9 47.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 34.7 35.8 58.1 108.8 62.3 57.2 22.7 28.8 40.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 38.5 33.2 52.7 114.4 66.8 60.1 21.0 27.0 32.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 34.0 38.5 54.2 111.1 63.2 59.4 19.0 29.1 39.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 49.6 56.0 62.4 106.4 61.4 56.2 33.2 46.5 58.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 34.0 35.5 61.9 105.6 59.8 56.0 23.3 29.2 37.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 37.6 35.3 55.5 96.9 51.4 48.9 23.4 34.8 40.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 31.4 31.5 58.3 107.5 59.4 57.2 18.8 29.6 35.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.9 34.0 57.7 101.8 57.7 51.5 18.5 27.3 38.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 61.6 64.8 63.3 97.7 53.4 50.4 35.9 54.3 84.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 27.3 35.6 51.0 110.7 61.8 59.3 14.9 23.5 37.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------