***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.3 13.7 94.6 56.6 51.1 1.3 3.9 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.2 6.0 12.8 102.1 58.9 52.5 0.9 3.3 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.2 13.4 97.1 59.0 51.2 1.3 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.4 14.6 91.9 57.8 49.6 5.8 10.1 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.0 13.6 93.2 56.4 48.9 2.6 5.9 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.3 6.1 14.1 87.6 50.8 44.7 3.7 5.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.5 4.0 12.9 101.9 60.0 52.5 1.0 2.0 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.0 12.1 13.3 87.5 53.0 44.9 5.4 9.7 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.8 14.2 96.5 58.5 49.9 1.1 4.3 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.0 14.5 92.9 55.9 47.6 2.3 5.7 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.0 12.5 91.5 53.3 47.3 2.5 4.6 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.6 5.4 11.8 86.2 51.9 44.8 3.4 5.4 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.3 5.1 13.9 88.8 50.9 44.9 3.1 4.9 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 1.6 4.0 17.3 104.5 61.7 51.6 1.4 2.9 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.5 11.0 14.4 92.7 61.2 49.4 2.7 6.1 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.7 5.9 12.9 89.8 52.2 46.1 3.3 5.8 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 3.1 3.2 13.2 108.2 59.8 53.0 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.5 5.1 15.1 92.4 54.0 47.5 1.0 3.2 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.6 5.8 13.0 100.9 59.4 52.3 1.0 2.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.0 16.2 87.1 50.9 44.5 3.5 7.8 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.9 13.4 94.5 58.0 50.0 1.6 5.7 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.6 13.7 108.0 61.0 53.0 1.0 2.9 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.0 13.3 99.3 60.3 51.6 1.6 3.8 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.6 14.9 96.6 56.9 49.5 2.0 4.3 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 7.9 6.8 14.4 90.1 54.9 49.6 3.6 6.2 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.0 6.0 14.6 91.5 52.4 45.4 1.7 5.4 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.6 3.5 14.0 91.9 54.6 50.2 1.2 2.8 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.5 13.8 90.6 58.1 48.2 4.0 6.1 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.9 8.3 15.1 89.2 51.4 45.8 4.9 7.7 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.2 12.8 97.8 59.1 51.7 0.6 3.1 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------