***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.7 4.0 8.9 67.5 45.7 40.5 2.1 8.0 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.7 4.1 7.8 68.5 47.1 40.8 2.4 4.5 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.9 5.1 8.8 68.9 44.8 40.1 3.2 5.3 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.0 6.6 13.2 89.4 54.6 45.4 2.8 6.2 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.7 8.4 12.6 89.1 54.2 44.3 3.9 7.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.6 10.7 14.6 93.4 53.2 45.8 1.8 9.5 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.9 5.0 7.5 67.8 46.3 41.0 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.4 18.2 12.4 84.1 49.7 43.0 9.7 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.6 12.4 83.8 52.3 43.0 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.4 11.9 12.7 82.0 49.0 42.4 4.9 12.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.8 11.4 11.9 88.3 52.8 43.5 2.4 10.7 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.3 10.7 11.6 88.2 52.2 43.8 5.5 9.5 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.9 11.1 13.5 89.4 50.8 44.1 4.4 10.8 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 20.1 14.0 11.2 70.2 45.5 40.4 7.9 15.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.6 5.7 12.5 87.2 55.9 44.6 0.9 3.1 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.7 10.4 13.2 92.3 54.4 44.8 3.7 9.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.2 6.7 8.5 76.4 50.7 44.5 2.9 6.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 5.2 10.2 12.4 76.6 46.4 41.2 6.6 11.6 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.4 6.1 7.9 67.2 46.3 40.4 1.7 7.7 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.5 8.5 14.4 79.1 47.8 42.5 5.2 8.9 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.3 7.0 10.7 78.0 49.1 42.1 4.3 7.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.1 8.5 9.5 80.7 50.1 45.7 4.0 8.4 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.3 7.8 8.2 65.6 44.9 40.0 4.0 9.4 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.9 11.2 10.7 71.0 45.4 40.0 9.0 11.9 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.9 7.7 11.3 75.5 47.6 42.8 4.1 7.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.4 8.1 12.9 89.7 52.9 45.5 2.3 6.4 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.2 4.5 9.7 69.4 45.9 40.8 2.7 6.0 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.3 4.2 13.4 92.8 55.9 45.9 0.5 3.3 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 8.3 11.6 12.7 75.4 45.2 41.0 8.7 13.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.6 7.8 66.3 45.3 39.8 1.8 4.8 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------