***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.3 7.3 16.5 138.0 73.5 61.2 1.1 3.4 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.4 9.7 14.9 133.6 72.4 59.8 1.1 2.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 10.7 13.5 17.1 141.6 75.6 63.5 2.2 4.7 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.4 12.7 17.1 121.6 67.8 59.3 3.7 6.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 11.3 12.9 18.0 132.7 72.0 62.7 4.1 7.9 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 11.3 12.3 18.9 141.0 76.0 62.5 1.9 5.8 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.9 8.0 14.2 129.1 70.4 59.0 1.2 3.3 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 21.4 24.8 18.6 133.8 73.2 65.0 7.7 15.5 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.6 10.1 18.4 133.9 72.3 62.7 4.0 7.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 15.0 17.5 19.5 138.7 74.1 65.6 6.2 10.8 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 13.8 16.3 17.9 132.4 71.4 63.8 2.5 7.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.0 18.2 17.1 132.9 72.1 63.8 4.2 6.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 13.2 16.5 19.1 142.4 76.8 64.7 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 11.1 12.2 22.4 149.0 76.7 66.4 4.1 9.0 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 3.2 2.8 15.3 112.0 65.5 55.4 0.5 1.1 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 11.3 11.0 18.1 133.9 72.7 63.1 3.6 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.6 8.0 13.2 119.3 68.9 57.4 0.3 3.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.9 20.3 139.0 75.1 65.9 3.0 8.7 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 8.5 10.8 15.5 136.6 72.7 60.8 0.8 2.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 13.6 14.6 22.3 138.0 73.9 65.9 4.0 8.9 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.0 9.8 17.8 135.6 73.4 62.4 3.7 7.4 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.2 9.8 14.3 121.8 67.6 57.9 0.6 1.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 9.1 10.6 17.3 144.2 74.7 63.8 0.8 2.3 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.7 20.1 140.2 75.4 65.2 4.5 10.5 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.9 8.9 18.3 129.9 71.4 60.7 1.2 4.8 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.2 12.3 17.5 128.2 70.1 59.1 2.6 6.4 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.0 10.9 17.3 135.0 71.1 60.8 1.6 4.2 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.1 7.7 16.3 119.8 68.1 58.7 0.5 2.2 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 26.3 32.1 21.3 141.9 75.3 67.3 4.5 16.3 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 7.0 8.5 15.5 138.7 74.3 61.2 1.3 3.1 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------