***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 6.1 7.0 16.3 142.9 73.5 66.4 1.0 4.3 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 4.4 5.1 14.8 151.4 74.8 70.1 0.7 1.5 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 8.3 8.6 15.1 133.9 72.4 64.7 1.9 4.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.3 17.1 119.2 68.6 56.1 4.6 7.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.0 8.7 15.7 112.5 65.7 54.7 0.9 4.4 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.4 4.0 11.8 86.1 49.0 44.1 1.3 4.0 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 6.3 6.3 14.6 153.9 75.9 70.0 0.8 2.2 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.6 12.5 12.5 80.1 49.6 45.1 6.6 12.5 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 4.8 6.6 15.8 119.0 68.2 57.1 1.7 3.4 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.7 5.7 14.6 94.9 57.5 49.7 1.4 5.0 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.4 13.2 93.4 56.7 48.8 1.2 5.9 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.5 4.1 11.4 85.7 51.6 46.9 0.3 3.7 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.8 5.2 12.5 85.1 49.0 44.4 1.6 5.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 7.0 10.7 18.3 126.4 68.3 62.2 3.0 5.2 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.6 6.1 12.9 109.0 66.2 53.1 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.1 13.3 98.3 58.1 49.7 1.4 6.2 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 5.2 6.8 14.8 157.1 77.5 70.6 0.9 2.2 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 6.3 5.9 15.5 100.2 59.6 52.1 1.6 4.1 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 7.5 8.2 15.0 147.8 73.7 69.5 1.3 4.3 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.5 12.8 72.4 45.9 41.6 1.5 3.6 6.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.6 6.3 16.2 130.9 71.3 61.7 1.2 2.6 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 4.4 6.6 15.2 154.0 76.8 70.4 0.6 1.3 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 7.9 11.0 15.4 140.9 71.2 68.1 0.4 2.1 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 8.1 7.6 16.7 121.0 67.5 59.3 1.4 6.3 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 7.2 7.0 17.9 132.2 70.1 62.9 0.8 4.4 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.0 1.5 10.5 79.0 46.0 42.1 0.5 2.1 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 6.7 7.2 17.2 142.2 72.7 66.4 1.2 5.6 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.4 6.5 14.2 106.3 65.1 52.1 1.6 2.8 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.0 8.3 14.3 89.5 54.4 48.4 3.6 8.1 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 7.9 9.3 14.8 148.6 74.8 69.4 0.7 2.5 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------