***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.0 12.9 1.0 66.4 60.2 12.3 13.5 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.1 12.7 0.9 61.5 59.2 12.2 13.6 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.6 13.3 1.1 64.5 60.5 12.5 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.1 10.3 1.1 64.3 61.0 4.3 5.5 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.1 15.1 11.6 1.1 64.2 60.6 12.7 13.8 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.7 13.7 9.6 1.1 63.6 60.1 11.2 12.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.6 12.6 0.8 59.9 58.0 11.9 13.0 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 2.8 3.1 10.1 1.2 64.8 60.7 1.0 2.4 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.6 12.3 1.1 64.0 60.7 12.5 13.6 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.7 11.0 1.2 65.3 60.8 12.4 13.4 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.8 11.7 1.2 64.3 60.6 12.3 13.7 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.2 14.3 10.9 1.1 63.1 59.9 11.8 12.9 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.2 15.3 10.7 1.0 63.2 58.9 12.4 13.8 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.7 12.2 1.0 61.8 59.5 12.6 14.0 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 13.6 14.7 11.7 1.1 64.5 61.1 12.2 13.2 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 14.5 15.4 11.0 1.1 62.8 59.8 12.8 14.1 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.2 12.3 0.7 59.9 58.1 11.3 12.7 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.5 14.3 10.5 1.2 64.9 61.0 11.9 13.1 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.2 13.0 0.9 62.3 59.7 12.0 13.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.4 9.8 8.0 1.2 66.3 61.8 7.2 7.9 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.9 12.9 1.1 64.4 60.6 12.8 13.6 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.1 12.6 0.8 60.7 58.5 12.0 13.6 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.5 13.2 1.0 63.2 59.9 12.5 14.1 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.7 12.2 1.1 63.3 60.3 12.7 13.7 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.4 11.5 1.0 64.5 59.9 12.2 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.5 14.3 9.8 0.9 61.0 58.6 12.0 13.1 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.1 12.2 0.9 63.7 59.2 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.6 10.9 1.2 64.1 61.2 12.4 13.4 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.3 9.7 1.2 66.1 61.3 7.4 8.0 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.1 12.8 0.9 62.2 59.5 11.9 13.3 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------